New Mexico State @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

3-7 · Power #129

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

2-8 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

UTEP -4.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 20–25 UTEP

✗ UTEP (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -3.5

CloseUTEP -4.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTEP -3.5

1 → UTEP

CloseUTEP -4.5

1 pt toward UTEP

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTEP -3.5 · closed UTEP -4.5 · moved 1 toward UTEPmodel UTEP -3.5

model UTEP -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 52% (220 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (254 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -3.5

CloseUTEP -4.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTEP as a 4.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 4.7; 47.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Very close	BGSU vs BUFF 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	3–28	L	U44.5
Very close	MOST vs UTEP 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	38–24	W	O48.5
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5	13–9	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WLLWW	5-5	50%	2-3	5-4
UTEP LWLLL	3-7	30%	1-4	2-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; UTEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OUUUU	3-7	30%	3-7
UTEP UOUOO	5-5	50%	2-8

Went over in Q3. Of 437 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UTEP	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NMSU 1–1 UTEP Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · UTEP has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	UTEP 42 @ New Mexico State 35	NMSU -3.5	UTEP W
Oct 18 2023	New Mexico State 28 @ UTEP 7	NMSU -3	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−21.1 →−17.6▲ 3.5#129

UTEP−15.9 →−16.4▼ 0.5#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NMSU

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#127

Offense

Even

#126

#69

Defense

UTEP better ▶

#45

+0.3 #38

Turnovers

◀ NMSU better

−0.8 #119

67 plays #58

Pace

◀ NMSU faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	NMSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #119	27.0 #87	UTEP
Yards / play	4.55 #134	5.13 #40	UTEP
PPA / play	−0.03 #128	+0.01 #28	UTEP
Success rate	36% #127	38% #26	UTEP

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	UTEP off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #111	26.9 #86	NMSU
Yards / play	4.96 #118	5.51 #67	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.12 #137	+0.04 #44	NMSU
Success rate	33% #136	42% #78	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	1.9 #134	6.3 #104	8.2 #127	2.7 #132	9.2 #22	11.9 #83
UTEP allowed	8.6 #126	6.9 #57	15.5 #102	4.7 #46	6.8 #78	11.5 #61

UTEP scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.5 #121	5.7 #113	9.2 #118	5.8 #73	6.8 #66	12.6 #65
NMSU allowed	6.1 #89	7.2 #69	13.3 #77	6.9 #110	6.0 #55	12.9 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.