New Mexico State @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 4:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Tennessee

Weather at kickoff67°F13 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico State

3-6 · Power #129

final

Final

Tennessee

6-3 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -41.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 7–49 TENN

✓ TENN (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -38.5

CloseTENN -41.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -38.5

3 → TENN

CloseTENN -41.5

3 pts toward Tennessee

Total

Open61.5

▼ 1

Close60.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -38.5 · closed TENN -41.5 · moved 3 toward TENNmodel TENN -41.5 matches the line

model TENN -41.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 39.5–43.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 55% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (226 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -38.5

CloseTENN -41.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like TENN as a 41.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 42–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 51 points stayed under 60.5, as in 4 of 9.

Favorite won

9 of 9100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 40%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 41.6 against an average line of 39.2; 58 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TENN vs UTEP 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-41.5	56–0	W	O54
Loose	UGA vs MASS 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-42.5	59–21	L	O55.5
Loose	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & situation	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Loose	TENN vs UAB 2025 · Week 4 · loose	-39	56–24	L	O68.5
Loose	PSU vs MASS 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-42	63–0	W	O55
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	ORE vs HAW 2023 · Week 3 · loose	-38.25	55–10	W	U67.75
Loose	TEX vs UTEP 2025 · Week 3 · loose	-39.5	27–10	L	U52.5
Loose	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WWLLW	4-5	44%	1-3	4-4
TENN LLLWL	4-5	44%	2-3	3-4

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UOUUU	3-6	33%	3-6
TENN OUUOO	7-2	78%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
TENN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NMSU 0–1 TENN TENN leads · 1 game since 2025 · TENN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−21.1 →−18.5▲ 2.6#130

TENN+17.7 →+15.9▼ 1.8#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NMSU

Longer bar = better

TENN

#122

Offense

TENN better ▶

#62

Defense

◀ NMSU better

#85

+0.3 #37

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #42

66 plays #81

Pace

TENN faster ▶

74 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	NMSU off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #112	31.1 #115	Even
Yards / play	4.62 #131	5.39 #60	TENN
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.09 #63	TENN
Success rate	36% #125	44% #100	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.6 #3	25.2 #78	TENN
Yards / play	6.83 #15	5.44 #64	TENN
PPA / play	+0.33 #6	+0.02 #34	TENN
Success rate	51% #9	42% #70	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.1 #134	6.7 #99	8.8 #124	3.0 #129	9.6 #19	12.6 #69
TENN allowed	5.0 #57	10.4 #119	15.4 #100	6.2 #97	8.8 #124	15.0 #116

TENN scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	14.6 #1	10.8 #27	25.3 #1	9.1 #14	8.0 #39	17.1 #18
NMSU allowed	5.2 #65	7.2 #73	12.4 #65	5.3 #65	6.7 #73	12.0 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.