Mississippi State @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:45 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F10 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

5-5 · Power #56

final

Final

Missouri

6-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -7.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 23–31 MIZ

✓ MIZ (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -5.5

CloseMIZ -7.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -5.5

2 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -7.5

2 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -5.5 · closed MIZ -7.5 · moved 2 toward MIZmodel MIZ -11.5

model MIZ -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (193 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (84 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -5.5

CloseMIZ -7.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 7.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIZ won 49–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 8; 48.2 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Very close	UVA vs WAKE 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	9–16	L	U48.5
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	37–28	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST LWWWL	7-2	78%	3-1	5-2
MIZ LWWLL	5-4	56%	4-3	4-2

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UUOOO	5-5	50%	5-5
MIZ UOUUO	6-3	67%	6-3

Went over in Q3. Of 613 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%
MIZ	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSST 0–1 MIZ MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Missouri 39 @ Mississippi State 20	MIZ -9.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+0.7 →+6.6▲ 5.9#45

MIZ+10.7 →+14.7▲ 4.0#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MSST

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#59

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#33

#91

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#23

+0.4 #35

Turnovers

◀ MSST better

−0.3 #102

71 plays #29

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

75 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	MSST off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #43	19.1 #20	MIZ
Yards / play	5.67 #71	4.76 #18	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.13 #60	+0.05 #44	Even
Success rate	43% #60	35% #9	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #31	26.3 #85	MIZ
Yards / play	6.03 #45	5.59 #76	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.21 #32	+0.13 #93	MIZ
Success rate	48% #23	45% #110	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.3 #12	5.8 #110	15.1 #69	7.3 #39	9.6 #18	16.9 #20
MIZ allowed	5.3 #67	4.9 #15	10.2 #35	4.0 #33	4.9 #34	8.9 #24

MIZ scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	5.9 #72	9.8 #48	15.7 #59	6.9 #50	10.1 #8	17.0 #19
MSST allowed	2.9 #24	8.2 #89	11.1 #46	4.6 #46	9.2 #126	13.8 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.