Virginia Tech @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

3-6 · Power #73

final

Final

Florida State

4-5 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -13.5

✓ FSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 20–35 FSU

✓ FSU (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -10.5

CloseFSU -13.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -10.5

3 → FSU

CloseFSU -13.5

3 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -10.5 · closed FSU -13.5 · moved 3 toward FSUmodel FSU -18

model FSU -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 53% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (229 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -10.5

CloseFSU -13.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 13.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 14.4; 55.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	MD vs NU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.25	31–24	L	O51
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-15	24–21	L	U53.5
Close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	21–14	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WLLWL	2-6	25%	1-1	1-3
FSU LLLWL	4-5	44%	4-2	3-3

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOUOU	4-5	44%	3-6
FSU UOUUU	5-4	56%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	4-6 40%
FSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VT 0–1 FSU FSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Virginia Tech 17 @ Florida State 39	FSU -25.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+6.8 →−1.7▼ 8.5#70

FSU0.0 →+12.5▲ 12.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

FSU

#84

Offense

FSU better ▶

#24

#114

Defense

FSU better ▶

#39

−0.3 #103

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #97

67 plays #68

Pace

FSU faster ▶

71 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	VT off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #89	21.0 #33	FSU
Yards / play	5.39 #91	4.83 #20	FSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #72	+0.06 #56	Even
Success rate	42% #83	40% #48	FSU

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #16	29.7 #107	FSU
Yards / play	6.91 #15	5.93 #102	FSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	+0.22 #127	FSU
Success rate	46% #36	46% #120	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

VT scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	5.3 #85	6.8 #98	12.1 #97	5.6 #77	5.0 #110	10.6 #103
FSU allowed	5.1 #61	5.3 #26	10.4 #36	4.6 #45	4.8 #30	9.3 #30

FSU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	8.1 #23	12.7 #7	20.8 #10	7.3 #38	8.2 #36	15.6 #31
VT allowed	5.4 #71	9.0 #99	14.4 #92	6.0 #91	8.4 #116	14.4 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.