Clemson @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Fri, Nov 14, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

4-5 · Power #34

▲ winner

Final

Louisville

7-2 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

LOU -2.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 25–28 LOU

✗ LOU (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -3.5

CloseLOU -2.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -3.5

1 → CLEM

CloseLOU -2.5

1 pt toward Clemson

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -3.5 · closed LOU -2.5 · moved 1 toward CLEMmodel LOU -3.5

model LOU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (295 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (102 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -3.5

CloseLOU -2.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 2.5-point home favorite against CLEM, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 20–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 2.5; 53.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–17	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM WWLLW	3-6	33%	2-1	—
LOU LWLWL	3-6	33%	0-6	2-6

Venue/role: CLEM away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM OUOOU	4-5	44%	4-5
LOU UUOUO	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
LOU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLEM 0–1 LOU LOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Louisville 33 @ Clemson 21	CLEM -11.5	LOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+15.2 →+9.2▼ 6.0#29

LOU+11.2 →+10.1▼ 1.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CLEM

Longer bar = better

LOU

#55

Offense

Even

#55

#47

Defense

LOU better ▶

#18

−0.3 #107

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.2 #51

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	CLEM off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #69	21.7 #43	LOU
Yards / play	6.04 #45	4.62 #12	LOU
PPA / play	+0.15 #54	−0.10 #6	LOU
Success rate	44% #53	36% #12	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #36	22.4 #58	LOU
Yards / play	6.02 #47	5.23 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.06 #57	CLEM
Success rate	44% #55	38% #22	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	7.0 #47	10.3 #39	17.3 #38	5.2 #84	5.3 #98	10.6 #102
LOU allowed	6.7 #101	5.7 #31	12.3 #69	3.7 #26	4.3 #23	8.0 #14

LOU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.8 #29	9.3 #54	17.1 #42	6.4 #59	8.7 #29	15.1 #38
CLEM allowed	6.0 #86	7.3 #74	13.3 #78	3.4 #22	5.7 #48	9.1 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.