Florida State @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida State

4-4 · Power #23

final

Final

Clemson

3-5 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -1.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 28–29 CLEM

✓ CLEM (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -2.5

CloseCLEM -1.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -2.5

1 → FSU

CloseCLEM -1.5

1 pt toward Florida State

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -2.5 · closed CLEM -1.5 · moved 1 toward FSUmodel FSU -2.5

model FSU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (179 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (275 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -2.5

CloseCLEM -1.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 1.5-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 2.3; 58.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	TA&M vs LSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–23	W	O54.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Very close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Very close	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Very close	KU vs TCU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	27–38	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LLLLW	4-4	50%	0-2	1-1
CLEM LWWLL	2-6	25%	0-5	2-6

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OUOUU	5-3	63%	4-4
CLEM OOUOO	4-4	50%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CLEM	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FSU 21–17 CLEM FSU leads · 38 games since 1970 · CLEM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Clemson 29 @ Florida State 13	CLEM -16.5	FSU W
Sep 23 2023	Florida State 31 @ Clemson 24	FSU -2	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU0.0 →+13.2▲ 13.2#21

CLEM+15.2 →+8.5▼ 6.7#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FSU

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#14

Offense

◀ FSU better

#48

#41

Defense

Even

#54

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ FSU better

−0.6 #118

72 plays #23

Pace

◀ FSU faster

68 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #6	24.0 #66	FSU
Yards / play	7.11 #9	5.23 #49	FSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #16	+0.10 #71	FSU
Success rate	48% #26	39% #30	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #68	20.6 #35	FSU
Yards / play	6.15 #38	4.81 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #50	+0.06 #52	Even
Success rate	46% #35	41% #56	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	9.1 #13	13.4 #5	22.5 #7	8.3 #24	8.9 #30	17.1 #19
CLEM allowed	6.8 #103	7.4 #73	14.1 #85	3.9 #29	6.0 #54	9.9 #40

CLEM scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	6.9 #53	10.4 #38	17.3 #40	5.5 #78	5.6 #93	11.1 #91
FSU allowed	4.8 #52	4.8 #13	9.5 #27	4.8 #49	5.0 #35	9.8 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.