Massachusetts @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Tue, Nov 4, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

0-8 · Power #136

final

Final

Akron

3-6 · Power #127

▲ winner

Closing spread

AKR -12.5

✓ AKR W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 19–31 AKR

✓ AKR (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAKR -10.5

CloseAKR -12.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAKR -10.5

2 → AKR

CloseAKR -12.5

2 pts toward Akron

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AKR -10.5 · closed AKR -12.5 · moved 2 toward AKRmodel AKR -11.5

model AKR -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 54% (100 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (213 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAKR -10.5

CloseAKR -12.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AKR as a 12.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AKR won 44–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 11.6; 51.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-10	14–21	L	U49
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	UNM vs NEV 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	24–22	L	U49.5
Close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Close	BUFF vs EMU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-9.5	31–30	L	O53.5
Close	TROY vs USM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-17.5	52–20	W	O49
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-13	24–14	L	U53
Close	KENN vs UTEP 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	33–20	W	P53
Close	BUFF vs AKR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-10	16–24	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS WLLWL	2-6	25%	1-3	2-5
AKR LWLLW	4-5	44%	2-2	1-0

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; AKR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UUUOO	5-3	63%	0-8
AKR UOUOU	4-5	44%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 610 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
AKR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−14.6 →−25.6▼ 11.0#136

AKR−13.5 →−17.9▼ 4.4#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MASS

Longer bar = better

AKR

#136

Offense

Even

#123

#126

Defense

AKR better ▶

#82

−0.1 #82

Turnovers

AKR better ▶

+0.3 #49

64 plays #102

Pace

AKR faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	MASS off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	11.5 #137	29.0 #97	AKR
Yards / play	3.95 #137	6.16 #117	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	+0.07 #56	AKR
Success rate	33% #135	41% #56	AKR

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #124	35.9 #130	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #125	6.15 #115	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.23 #127	Even
Success rate	38% #122	48% #130	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.0 #114	5.5 #116	9.5 #118	1.6 #135	0.4 #136	2.0 #136
AKR allowed	6.2 #88	9.2 #105	15.4 #97	7.2 #107	6.3 #66	13.6 #102

AKR scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.2 #109	6.1 #106	10.3 #112	5.0 #92	3.4 #126	8.4 #124
MASS allowed	9.9 #130	9.0 #98	18.9 #130	11.3 #136	5.8 #52	17.0 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.