Tulane @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Fri, Nov 7, 2025, 9:10 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

6-2 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

Memphis

8-1 · Power #61

final

Closing spread

MEM -3.5

✓ TULN W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 25–29 MEM

✗ MEM (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -7.5

CloseMEM -3.5

Total57.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -7.5

4 → TULN

CloseMEM -3.5

4 pts toward Tulane

Total

Open57.5

▼ 4

Close53.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -7.5 · closed MEM -3.5 · moved 4 toward TULNmodel MEM -5.5

model MEM -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (283 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (74 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -7.5

CloseMEM -3.5

Total57.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 3.5-point home favorite against TULN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 38–32 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 3.5; 56.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT vs NCSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-5	53–34	W	O52.5
Close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Close	TULN vs USF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	45–10	W	U60.5
Close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	28–21	W	U51
Close	MIZ vs AUB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-3.5	21–17	W	U49.5
Close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	30–35	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN LWWLL	4-4	50%	1-3	1-1
MEM WWLWW	8-1	89%	4-0	6-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UUUUO	3-5	38%	6-2
MEM OUUOO	4-5	44%	8-1

Went over in Q3. Of 540 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MEM	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TULN 17–25 MEM (1 tied) MEM leads · 43 games since 1954 · TULN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 28 2024	Memphis 34 @ Tulane 24	TULN -12.5	MEM W
Oct 13 2023	Tulane 31 @ Memphis 21	TULN -4.5	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+5.1 →+2.3▼ 2.8#57

MEM+2.2 →+5.0▲ 2.8#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TULN

Longer bar = better

MEM

#52

Offense

MEM better ▶

#20

#84

Defense

MEM better ▶

#45

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+1.0 #11

67 plays #65

Pace

Even

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #81	19.2 #24	MEM
Yards / play	6.13 #40	5.24 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #50	+0.07 #59	Even
Success rate	45% #38	40% #47	Even

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #12	25.5 #80	MEM
Yards / play	6.41 #30	5.73 #89	MEM
PPA / play	+0.28 #16	+0.07 #60	MEM
Success rate	48% #21	44% #105	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	6.4 #65	8.9 #64	15.3 #66	4.3 #105	6.4 #76	10.6 #100
MEM allowed	4.9 #56	9.0 #98	13.9 #80	2.2 #9	3.1 #8	5.3 #6

MEM scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	9.2 #13	11.6 #23	20.8 #13	7.0 #45	9.9 #15	16.9 #25
TULN allowed	5.5 #72	6.6 #57	12.1 #65	4.6 #48	8.8 #120	13.4 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.