NC State @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

NC State

4-3 · Power #44

final

Final

Pittsburgh

5-2 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -5.5

✓ PITT W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 25–31 PITT

✓ PITT (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -7.5

ClosePITT -5.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -7.5

2 → NCSU

ClosePITT -5.5

2 pts toward NC State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -7.5 · closed PITT -5.5 · moved 2 toward NCSUmodel PITT -7

model PITT -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (161 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 59% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -7.5

ClosePITT -5.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 5.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 53–34; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 5.6; 55 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Very close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Very close	LOU vs JMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–10	W	U53.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	45–13	W	O46.5
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	BYU vs KU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	13–17	L	U55.5
Very close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Very close	BYU vs OKST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	38–35	L	O53
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU WLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	0-2
PITT LLWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	4-3
PITT OOOOU	6-1	86%	5-2

Went over in Q3. Of 546 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PITT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+0.7 →+3.3▲ 2.6#57

PITT+2.5 →+7.4▲ 4.9#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

NCSU

Longer bar = better

PITT

#47

Offense

Even

#56

#79

Defense

PITT better ▶

#19

−0.6 #110

Turnovers

PITT better ▶

0.0 #73

66 plays #75

Pace

PITT faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	NCSU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #57	20.3 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #38	4.34 #12	PITT
PPA / play	+0.20 #39	−0.03 #19	Even
Success rate	45% #55	33% #5	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.4 #13	26.6 #89	PITT
Yards / play	5.98 #52	5.82 #103	PITT
PPA / play	+0.14 #66	+0.17 #105	PITT
Success rate	42% #93	37% #17	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	8.4 #24	10.3 #39	18.7 #28	7.9 #31	3.4 #126	11.3 #92
PITT allowed	2.0 #11	7.7 #87	9.7 #35	2.9 #19	6.7 #75	9.6 #36

PITT scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	8.9 #17	12.6 #13	21.4 #13	8.0 #27	9.0 #29	17.0 #25
NCSU allowed	7.4 #108	7.7 #87	15.1 #100	6.0 #91	5.4 #49	11.4 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.