West Virginia @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

2-4 · Power #77

final

Final

UCF

3-3 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -6.5

✓ UCF W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 21–28 UCF

✓ UCF (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -7.5

CloseUCF -6.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -7.5

1 → WVU

CloseUCF -6.5

1 pt toward West Virginia

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -7.5 · closed UCF -6.5 · moved 1 toward WVUmodel UCF -10

model UCF -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (193 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 59% (63 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -7.5

CloseUCF -6.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 6.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 45–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 7; 46 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	3–7	L	U46
Very close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Very close	MINN vs PUR 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	27–20	L	U49.5
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Very close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Very close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5
Very close	CONN vs FIU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	51–10	W	O52
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	7–33	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LWLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-2
UCF WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UOUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
UCF OUOUU	2-4	33%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 461 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WVU 2–0 UCF WVU leads · 2 games since 2023 · WVU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	UCF 21 @ West Virginia 31	UCF -3.5	WVU W
Oct 28 2023	West Virginia 41 @ UCF 28	UCF -6.5	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+0.8 →−2.8▼ 3.6#78

UCF+6.8 →+4.0▼ 2.8#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WVU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#110

Offense

UCF better ▶

#72

#80

Defense

UCF better ▶

#43

−0.2 #90

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+0.2 #59

70 plays #36

Pace

Even

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	WVU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #107	17.8 #26	UCF
Yards / play	5.40 #93	5.03 #38	UCF
PPA / play	+0.01 #121	+0.05 #48	UCF
Success rate	38% #117	41% #60	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #73	28.5 #100	UCF
Yards / play	6.09 #49	5.55 #77	UCF
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.11 #73	Even
Success rate	40% #107	41% #68	WVU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	2.3 #130	3.8 #128	6.2 #132	6.3 #59	8.7 #40	15.0 #42
UCF allowed	1.2 #4	7.3 #74	8.5 #26	6.0 #87	3.3 #12	9.3 #36

UCF scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	7.5 #44	7.5 #88	15.0 #69	5.7 #74	7.7 #55	13.3 #63
WVU allowed	6.3 #95	10.2 #115	16.5 #114	6.3 #95	5.7 #56	12.0 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.