TCU @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

TCU

5-2 · Power #33

▲ winner

Final

West Virginia

2-5 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

TCU -16.5

✓ WVU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 37–21 WVU

✓ TCU (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -14.5

CloseTCU -16.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -14.5

2 → TCU

CloseTCU -16.5

2 pts toward TCU

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -14.5 · closed TCU -16.5 · moved 2 toward TCUmodel TCU -12

model TCU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 54% (61 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (208 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -14.5

CloseTCU -16.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 16.5-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 23–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 15.4; 55.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Very close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	24–31	L	U58
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17	42–7	W	U52
Very close	FSU @ STAN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	13–20	L	U55.5
Very close	CLEM @ BC 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	41–10	W	U54.5
Close	WSU @ SDSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-17	29–26	L	U56.5
Close	ARIZ @ STAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-13	21–20	L	U60
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-18	37–27	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WLLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	3-3
WVU WLLWL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: TCU away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UUUOO	4-3	57%	5-2
WVU OUOOO	4-3	57%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WVU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TCU 6–8 WVU WVU leads · 14 games since 1984 · TCU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	West Virginia 24 @ TCU 21	TCU -14	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.9 →+9.4▲ 1.5#33

WVU+0.8 →−4.4▼ 5.2#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TCU

Longer bar = better

WVU

#31

Offense

◀ TCU better

#119

#67

Defense

◀ TCU better

#97

+0.6 #33

Turnovers

◀ TCU better

0.0 #78

68 plays #58

Pace

WVU faster ▶

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #24	30.9 #116	TCU
Yards / play	6.47 #31	5.88 #106	TCU
PPA / play	+0.22 #33	+0.13 #89	TCU
Success rate	46% #36	42% #77	TCU

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	WVU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #113	26.3 #85	TCU
Yards / play	4.99 #118	5.40 #63	TCU
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.10 #68	TCU
Success rate	38% #119	40% #52	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.0 #89	12.3 #13	17.3 #41	8.0 #27	11.0 #7	19.0 #11
WVU allowed	7.4 #108	8.7 #98	16.1 #111	8.4 #124	6.3 #65	14.7 #116

WVU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	2.0 #133	4.3 #127	6.3 #134	5.4 #75	8.3 #47	13.7 #59
TCU allowed	2.4 #18	7.4 #82	9.9 #37	6.9 #104	9.6 #129	16.4 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.