Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

1-6 · Power #111

final

Final

Texas Tech

6-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -35.5

✓ TTU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 10–47 TTU

✓ TTU (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -38.5

CloseTTU -35.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -38.5

3 → OKST

CloseTTU -35.5

3 pts toward Oklahoma State

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -38.5 · closed TTU -35.5 · moved 3 toward OKSTmodel TTU -42.5

model TTU -42.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 34.5–36.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 47% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (179 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -38.5

CloseTTU -35.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 35.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 42–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 42.8 against an average line of 37.8; 50 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Loose	ORE vs ORST 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-34	41–7	P	U58.5
Loose	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Loose	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Loose	NCST vs CONN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-38.5	41–10	L	O47.75
Loose	PSU vs MASS 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-42	63–0	W	O55
Loose	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar total	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5
Loose	TEX vs MSST 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-37	35–13	L	U58.5
Loose	TEX vs SHSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose	-39.5	55–0	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST LWLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-4
TTU WWWWL	5-1	83%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST UOUOO	4-3	57%	1-6
TTU UUUOU	3-4	43%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	1-9 10%	1-8 11%	5-5 50%
TTU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OKST 24–25 TTU (3 tied) TTU leads · 52 games since 1935 · TTU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Texas Tech 56 @ Oklahoma State 48	TTU -4.5	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−2.7 →−16.2▼ 13.5#127

TTU+5.6 →+18.9▲ 13.3#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

OKST

Longer bar = better

TTU

#131

Offense

TTU better ▶

#16

#131

Defense

TTU better ▶

−0.1 #89

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+0.7 #28

66 plays #76

Pace

TTU faster ▶

74 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	OKST off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #133	14.1 #6	TTU
Yards / play	4.71 #130	4.12 #6	TTU
PPA / play	−0.04 #128	−0.23 #1	TTU
Success rate	36% #132	32% #4	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	43.9 #5	38.4 #133	TTU
Yards / play	7.01 #12	6.77 #134	TTU
PPA / play	+0.29 #14	+0.30 #134	TTU
Success rate	47% #33	47% #123	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.3 #83	4.6 #127	9.9 #118	2.4 #133	4.3 #118	6.7 #134
TTU allowed	0.9 #2	4.9 #20	5.7 #7	1.0 #2	7.4 #87	8.4 #22

TTU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	14.0 #2	12.6 #12	26.6 #1	5.9 #73	11.4 #6	17.3 #22
OKST allowed	10.7 #134	13.3 #136	24.0 #136	9.1 #127	5.3 #40	14.4 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.