Texas Tech @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

7-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Kansas State

4-4 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

TTU -7.5

✓ TTU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 30–23 KSU

✓ TTU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -6.5

CloseTTU -7.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -6.5

1 → TTU

CloseTTU -7.5

1 pt toward Texas Tech

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -6.5 · closed TTU -7.5 · moved 1 toward TTUmodel TTU -9.5

model TTU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (131 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (72 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -6.5

CloseTTU -7.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 7.5-point road favorite at KSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 43–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 7.7; 60 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 5 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Very close	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Close	BYU @ COLO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	TENN @ VAN 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	36–23	W	O47
Close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	38–10	W	U59
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Close	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-10	39–38	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU WWWLW	6-1	86%	2-1	5-1
KSU LWWWW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-0

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; KSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU UUOUU	3-5	38%	7-1
KSU UOOOO	5-3	63%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 601 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%
KSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TTU 0–1 KSU KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Kansas State 38 @ Texas Tech 21	TTU -0.5	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+5.6 →+18.7▲ 13.1#10

KSU+9.4 →+7.6▼ 1.8#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TTU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#19

Offense

◀ TTU better

#70

Defense

◀ TTU better

#54

+0.6 #34

Turnovers

KSU better ▶

+1.1 #8

73 plays #16

Pace

◀ TTU faster

63 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.6 #4	25.8 #84	TTU
Yards / play	6.82 #19	5.12 #42	TTU
PPA / play	+0.28 #15	+0.06 #48	TTU
Success rate	46% #36	39% #41	Even

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	KSU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #53	12.4 #4	TTU
Yards / play	5.86 #60	3.97 #5	TTU
PPA / play	+0.12 #77	−0.27 #1	TTU
Success rate	41% #91	31% #4	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	14.9 #2	11.9 #20	26.8 #2	6.9 #51	10.0 #12	16.9 #25
KSU allowed	3.9 #40	8.3 #88	12.1 #62	4.6 #51	9.0 #126	13.6 #106

KSU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.5 #81	8.1 #77	13.6 #83	11.5 #4	5.9 #89	17.4 #17
TTU allowed	0.8 #2	4.3 #11	5.0 #5	0.9 #1	6.5 #69	7.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.