Kansas State @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F8 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas State

3-4 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Kansas

4-3 · Power #54

final

Closing spread

KU -3.5

✓ KSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 26–29 KU

✗ KU (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -2.5

CloseKU -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -2.5

1 → KU

CloseKU -3.5

1 pt toward Kansas

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -2.5 · closed KU -3.5 · moved 1 toward KUmodel KU -4

model KU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 49% (261 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (92 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -2.5

CloseKU -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 3.5-point home favorite against KSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 42–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 3.7; 47.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Very close	DUKE vs GT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	18–27	L	U60.5
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	24–10	W	U55
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	CIN vs WVU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–31	L	O54.5
Close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Close	GT vs BC 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	23–38	L	O57
Close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	13–19	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LLWWW	3-4	43%	1-1	2-0
KU LWLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UUOOO	4-3	57%	3-4
KU OUOUO	3-4	43%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 485 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
KU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KSU 2–0 KU KSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · KSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Kansas 27 @ Kansas State 29	KSU -9.5	KU W
Nov 18 2023	Kansas State 31 @ Kansas 27	KSU -7	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+9.4 →+5.6▼ 3.8#48

KU+6.8 →+6.9▲ 0.1#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

KSU

Longer bar = better

#80

Offense

KU better ▶

#24

#65

Defense

Even

#76

+0.9 #19

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

+0.4 #44

64 plays #104

Pace

Even

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #64	23.6 #62	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #69	5.64 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #90	+0.19 #112	KSU
Success rate	41% #97	40% #50	KU

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #46	27.0 #90	KU
Yards / play	6.62 #25	5.42 #65	KU
PPA / play	+0.32 #9	+0.10 #65	KU
Success rate	50% #17	39% #39	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	3.3 #123	9.3 #60	12.6 #94	11.1 #4	5.7 #86	16.9 #26
KU allowed	6.4 #95	7.7 #86	14.1 #90	3.4 #29	6.0 #59	9.4 #35

KU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	9.0 #17	10.7 #37	19.7 #22	8.7 #22	4.0 #121	12.7 #72
KSU allowed	3.4 #31	8.4 #93	11.9 #65	4.9 #59	10.3 #133	15.1 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.