Kansas @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F12 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas

4-2 · Power #54

final

Final

Texas Tech

5-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -13.5

✓ TTU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 22–36 TTU

✓ TTU (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -14.5

CloseTTU -13.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -14.5

1 → KU

CloseTTU -13.5

1 pt toward Kansas

Total

Open60.5

▼ 2

Close58.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -14.5 · closed TTU -13.5 · moved 1 toward KUmodel TTU -14.5

model TTU -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 49% (110 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (231 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -14.5

CloseTTU -13.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 13.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 42–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 13.6; 53.8 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-9	10–20	L	U53
Close	MISS vs UK 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	17–20	L	U51.5
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Close	MIA vs VT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	38–34	L	O55.5
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Close	LOU vs GT 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-8.5	31–19	W	U56
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LLWLW	3-3	50%	1-1	0-1
TTU –WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
TTU OOUUU	2-3	40%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 366 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
TTU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KU 0–1 TTU TTU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TTU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Texas Tech 16 @ Kansas 13	KU -4	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+6.8 →+8.0▲ 1.2#36

TTU+5.6 →+17.5▲ 11.9#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

TTU

#19

Offense

Even

#11

#63

Defense

TTU better ▶

+0.5 #45

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+1.2 #10

61 plays #122

Pace

TTU faster ▶

77 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #40	11.2 #4	TTU
Yards / play	7.15 #15	3.94 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #8	−0.40 #1	Even
Success rate	52% #13	27% #2	Even

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	48.6 #2	20.5 #44	TTU
Yards / play	7.41 #11	5.36 #62	TTU
PPA / play	+0.36 #10	+0.16 #102	TTU
Success rate	50% #21	39% #45	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	10.5 #13	9.7 #54	20.2 #24	10.2 #11	4.7 #107	14.8 #47
TTU allowed	0.6 #3	2.2 #7	2.8 #3	0.0 #1	8.4 #111	8.4 #26

TTU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	16.0 #2	15.6 #2	31.6 #1	6.8 #57	10.2 #18	17.0 #28
KU allowed	4.5 #59	8.5 #96	13.0 #77	2.8 #22	4.7 #33	7.5 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.