Texas Tech @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

4-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Houston

4-0 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

TTU -11.5

✓ TTU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 31–20 HOU

✓ TTU (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -12.5

CloseTTU -11.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -12.5

1 → HOU

CloseTTU -11.5

1 pt toward Houston

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -12.5 · closed TTU -11.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel TTU -10

model TTU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 46% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (216 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -12.5

CloseTTU -11.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as an 11.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 35–11; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 9.8; 47.6 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-10	27–3	W	U53
Close	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	39–38	L	O54
Close	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Close	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · close	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Close	TENN @ ARK 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	14–19	L	U57.5
Close	BYU @ ECU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–13	W	U49.5
Close	BYU @ COLO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Loose	MICH @ IOWA 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & spread	-10.5	27–14	W	U42
Loose	MISS @ UK 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-7.75	30–23	L	O51.5
Loose	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & total	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU –WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
HOU WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	—

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OOUU	2-2	50%	4-0
HOU UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	7-3 70%
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TTU 1–0 HOU TTU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TTU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Houston 28 @ Texas Tech 49	TTU -9	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+5.6 →+14.9▲ 9.3#17

HOU−1.8 →+3.6▲ 5.4#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TTU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#11

Offense

◀ TTU better

#95

Defense

Even

#12

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #11

74 plays #15

Pace

◀ TTU faster

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #2	13.3 #14	Even
Yards / play	7.80 #5	4.02 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #11	−0.12 #10	Even
Success rate	50% #24	34% #16	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	HOU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #61	11.3 #8	TTU
Yards / play	5.50 #88	3.75 #5	TTU
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	−0.39 #1	TTU
Success rate	34% #134	25% #1	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	16.3 #2	17.0 #3	33.3 #1	7.8 #45	11.0 #14	18.8 #19
HOU allowed	1.8 #14	6.0 #51	7.8 #23	0.8 #5	4.8 #39	5.5 #9

HOU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.3 #106	8.3 #79	12.5 #96	6.0 #67	12.0 #7	18.0 #22
TTU allowed	0.0 #1	0.8 #2	0.8 #1	0.0 #1	10.5 #130	10.5 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.