Kansas State @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

2-3 · Power #42

final

Final

Baylor

3-2 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -4.5

✓ KSU W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 28–33 BAY

✓ BAY (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -5.5

CloseBAY -4.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -5.5

1 → KSU

CloseBAY -4.5

1 pt toward Kansas State

Total

Open61.5

▼ 1

Close60.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -5.5 · closed BAY -4.5 · moved 1 toward KSUmodel BAY -8

model BAY -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (169 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (208 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -5.5

CloseBAY -4.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 4.5-point home favorite against KSU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 35–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 4.7; 56.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs TTU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	35–34	L	O66
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	TTU vs WVU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	52–15	W	O62.5
Very close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Very close	OKST vs WVU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	14–38	L	U64.5
Very close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Very close	UCF vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	56–12	W	O55
Very close	UNC vs NCST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–30	L	O56
Very close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	38–6	W	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-1	—
BAY LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOUUO	2-3	40%	2-3
BAY OOUUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 245 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
BAY	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KSU 1–0 BAY KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Baylor 25 @ Kansas State 59	KSU -21	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+9.4 →+4.3▼ 5.1#49

BAY+6.9 →+9.2▲ 2.3#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

KSU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#90

Offense

BAY better ▶

#41

#56

Defense

◀ KSU better

#87

+0.4 #52

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

−0.6 #112

59 plays #130

Pace

BAY faster ▶

78 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #83	28.8 #108	KSU
Yards / play	5.82 #72	5.46 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.11 #78	BAY
Success rate	40% #105	42% #88	Even

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #35	25.2 #80	BAY
Yards / play	6.48 #38	4.95 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #42	+0.09 #75	BAY
Success rate	46% #48	36% #24	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	3.2 #120	8.2 #82	11.4 #106	10.0 #11	4.8 #102	14.8 #53
BAY allowed	6.8 #102	8.8 #98	15.6 #102	4.8 #66	7.0 #82	11.8 #77

BAY scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.4 #86	15.4 #10	20.8 #27	3.4 #116	10.4 #20	13.8 #65
KSU allowed	4.2 #58	7.6 #85	11.8 #73	5.4 #76	8.0 #104	13.4 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.