Charlotte @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Fri, Oct 3, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F12 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Charlotte

1-3 · Power #134

final

Final

South Florida

3-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -28.5

✓ CLT W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 11–40 USF

✓ USF (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -28.5

CloseUSF -28.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -28.5

no move

CloseUSF -28.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -28.5 · unchangedmodel USF -27.5

model USF -27.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 59% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -28.5

CloseUSF -28.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 28.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 54–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Below normal · usually 96%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 56%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 26.2; 53.6 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN vs TEM 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-25.5	52–6	W	O50.5
Close	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Close	LIB vs MASS 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-26.5	49–25	L	O63.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & total	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & total	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	BOIS vs UNM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-27.5	42–14	W	U59
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-27	28–24	L	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT LLWL	1-3	25%	—	0-3
USF WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT –UOO	2-1	67%	1-3
USF UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 473 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%
USF	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CLT 0–2 USF USF leads · 2 games since 2023 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	South Florida 59 @ Charlotte 24	CLT -1.5	USF W
Nov 25 2023	Charlotte 14 @ South Florida 48	USF -7	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−11.9 →−18.5▼ 6.6#131

USF−3.9 →+4.2▲ 8.1#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CLT

Longer bar = better

USF

#107

Offense

USF better ▶

#74

#114

Defense

USF better ▶

#59

−1.8 #136

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+1.0 #21

68 plays #48

Pace

◀ CLT faster

60 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	CLT off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #122	21.5 #57	USF
Yards / play	5.08 #113	5.40 #69	USF
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	−0.02 #27	USF
Success rate	41% #102	42% #83	Even

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #56	29.3 #111	USF
Yards / play	6.66 #31	6.16 #115	USF
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.16 #100	USF
Success rate	37% #129	49% #130	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	1.5 #131	4.0 #124	5.5 #128	5.3 #83	7.5 #63	12.8 #77
USF allowed	6.0 #92	6.8 #65	12.8 #80	1.8 #12	7.0 #83	8.8 #38

USF scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	2.5 #123	8.3 #78	10.8 #108	14.5 #2	6.5 #80	21.0 #8
CLT allowed	6.0 #92	9.5 #110	15.5 #105	6.0 #88	7.8 #99	13.8 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.