Colorado State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Fri, Oct 3, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

1-3 · Power #116

final

Final

San Diego State

3-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

SDSU -4.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 18–22 SDSU

✓ SDSU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -5.5

CloseSDSU -4.5

Total38.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -5.5

1 → CSU

CloseSDSU -4.5

1 pt toward Colorado State

Total

Open38.5

▲ 2

Close40.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -5.5 · closed SDSU -4.5 · moved 1 toward CSUmodel SDSU -5

model SDSU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (168 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (206 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -5.5

CloseSDSU -4.5

Total38.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 4.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 45–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 40.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 4.4; 45.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Close	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Close	BUFF vs TROY 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	17–21	L	U43.5
Close	TOL vs M-OH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Close	M-OH vs NIU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	20–9	W	U43
Close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Close	RUTG vs UCLA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-4.25	32–35	L	O42.5
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	26–41	L	O48
Close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WLWL	2-2	50%	1-0	2-0
SDSU –LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
SDSU UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 148 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
SDSU	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CSU 15–23 SDSU SDSU leads · 38 games since 1978 · SDSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	San Diego State 19 @ Colorado State 22	CSU -3.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−6.9 →−7.5▼ 0.6#95

SDSU−12.0 →−5.9▲ 6.1#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CSU

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#103

Offense

Even

#115

#74

Defense

SDSU better ▶

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.5 #43

68 plays #50

Pace

◀ CSU faster

66 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	CSU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #131	9.8 #6	SDSU
Yards / play	5.06 #113	3.65 #3	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	−0.16 #6	SDSU
Success rate	44% #65	30% #7	SDSU

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU defense

	SDSU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #94	23.0 #67	CSU
Yards / play	4.83 #127	5.52 #79	CSU
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.08 #72	CSU
Success rate	38% #118	42% #78	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	2.5 #125	2.5 #135	5.0 #133	5.3 #84	5.0 #100	10.3 #104
SDSU allowed	2.5 #27	3.0 #12	5.5 #15	2.5 #22	1.8 #3	4.3 #6

SDSU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	5.3 #90	5.5 #111	10.8 #109	7.0 #54	6.0 #85	13.0 #71
CSU allowed	6.0 #94	7.5 #85	13.5 #88	5.3 #72	4.3 #31	9.5 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.