San Diego State @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

4-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

1-4 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

SDSU -6.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 25–19 NEV

✓ SDSU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -6.5

CloseSDSU -6.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -6.5

no move

CloseSDSU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -6.5 · unchangedmodel SDSU -5.5

model SDSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (139 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -6.5

CloseSDSU -6.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 44–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 6.4; 50.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Very close	JXST @ SHSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	35–28	W	O36
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Very close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–11	W	U48
Close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	10–7	L	U47
Close	FRES @ AFA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	28–36	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU –LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-0
NEV WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UOUUO	2-3	40%	4-1
NEV OUUUU	1-4	20%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 236 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%
NEV	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SDSU 0–1 NEV NEV leads · 1 game since 2023 · NEV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Nevada 6 @ San Diego State 0	SDSU -11	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−12.0 →−4.7▲ 7.3#82

NEV−9.7 →−14.1▼ 4.4#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SDSU

Longer bar = better

NEV

#81

Offense

◀ SDSU better

#125

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#92

+0.4 #48

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−1.8 #136

66 plays #82

Pace

◀ SDSU faster

62 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #74	25.6 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #87	5.58 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #80	+0.15 #96	Even
Success rate	42% #84	45% #109	SDSU

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	NEV off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.4 #133	12.6 #8	SDSU
Yards / play	5.19 #106	4.01 #6	SDSU
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	−0.08 #12	SDSU
Success rate	37% #127	32% #6	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	5.6 #79	8.6 #73	14.2 #76	7.6 #44	6.2 #79	13.8 #59
NEV allowed	4.0 #46	9.4 #109	13.4 #82	3.8 #42	8.4 #112	12.2 #82

NEV scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	1.2 #134	7.2 #94	8.4 #124	2.0 #132	5.0 #100	7.0 #130
SDSU allowed	2.0 #12	4.4 #16	6.4 #9	2.0 #12	4.2 #30	6.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.