East Carolina @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Thu, Oct 9, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

3-2 · Power #51

final

Final

Tulane

4-1 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -6.5

✓ TULN W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 22–29 TULN

✓ TULN (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -7.5

CloseTULN -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -7.5

1 → ECU

CloseTULN -6.5

1 pt toward East Carolina

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -7.5 · closed TULN -6.5 · moved 1 toward ECUmodel TULN -6.5 matches the line

model TULN -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (185 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 59% (59 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -7.5

CloseTULN -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 6.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 26–19; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 6.1; 49.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs JMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	34–10	W	U53.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Close	SC vs UK 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	35–13	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-0	1-1
TULN WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UOUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
TULN UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	4-6 40%
TULN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ECU 0–1 TULN TULN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TULN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Tulane 13 @ East Carolina 10	TULN -17	ECU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−5.0 →+1.8▲ 6.8#62

TULN+5.1 →+4.7▼ 0.4#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ECU

Longer bar = better

TULN

#70

Offense

Even

#78

#24

Defense

◀ ECU better

#73

+0.8 #27

Turnovers

TULN better ▶

+1.4 #7

78 plays #3

Pace

◀ ECU faster

70 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #59	24.0 #74	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #68	5.77 #93	ECU
PPA / play	+0.12 #84	−0.03 #26	TULN
Success rate	44% #67	44% #97	ECU

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	TULN off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #84	13.4 #11	ECU
Yards / play	5.60 #79	4.71 #29	ECU
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	0.00 #34	ECU
Success rate	43% #72	36% #21	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	9.6 #17	5.6 #111	15.2 #68	4.8 #88	10.4 #14	15.2 #44
TULN allowed	6.8 #102	5.8 #46	12.6 #76	1.4 #8	10.0 #130	11.4 #73

TULN scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.4 #31	10.6 #43	19.0 #35	4.0 #105	3.2 #126	7.2 #126
ECU allowed	1.2 #6	5.4 #38	6.6 #13	4.0 #45	2.8 #12	6.8 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.