Navy @ Temple: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Temple · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F6 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Navy

5-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Final

Temple

3-2 · Power #96

final

Closing spread

NAVY -10.5

✓ TEM W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 31–21 TEM

✓ NAVY (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -8.5

CloseNAVY -10.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -8.5

2 → NAVY

CloseNAVY -10.5

2 pts toward Navy

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -8.5 · closed NAVY -10.5 · moved 2 toward NAVYmodel NAVY -8

model NAVY -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 51% (69 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (187 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -8.5

CloseNAVY -10.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 10.5-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 32–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 10.5; 54.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Very close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Very close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	42–7	W	U50
Close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Close	TXST @ ULM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	38–17	W	O50
Close	TXST @ ODU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	14–24	L	U60
Close	JMU @ ARST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	42–20	W	O55
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-0	2-3
TEM WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; TEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOOUO	4-1	80%	5-0
TEM OOUOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 521 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	9-1 90%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
TEM	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NAVY 1–1 TEM Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Temple 11 @ Navy 38	NAVY -11.5	NAVY W
Nov 4 2023	Navy 18 @ Temple 32	NAVY -6.5	TEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY+1.2 →+1.0▼ 0.2#65

TEM−16.1 →−8.4▲ 7.7#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NAVY

Longer bar = better

TEM

#10

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#71

#50

Defense

◀ NAVY better

#84

+0.2 #52

Turnovers

TEM better ▶

+1.4 #3

64 plays #108

Pace

Even

65 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #23	25.0 #78	NAVY
Yards / play	7.71 #4	5.63 #84	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.41 #4	+0.08 #63	NAVY
Success rate	54% #7	45% #111	NAVY

When TEM has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	TEM off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #59	19.6 #37	NAVY
Yards / play	5.46 #89	5.40 #67	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.20 #45	+0.06 #54	Even
Success rate	41% #91	39% #40	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.6 #42	13.2 #15	20.8 #22	7.6 #42	9.0 #32	16.6 #30
TEM allowed	9.8 #129	6.2 #51	16.0 #107	7.0 #110	2.0 #3	9.0 #35

TEM scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	6.2 #65	8.2 #81	14.4 #73	8.4 #31	7.4 #64	15.8 #37
NAVY allowed	5.6 #83	4.6 #21	10.2 #48	3.4 #35	6.0 #59	9.4 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.