Florida Atlantic @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

3-4 · Power #108

final

Final

Navy

6-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -14.5

✓ FAU W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 24–38 NAVY

✓ NAVY (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -14.5

CloseNAVY -14.5

Total62.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -14.5

no move

CloseNAVY -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

▲ 1

Close63.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -14.5 · unchangedmodel NAVY -14.5 matches the line

model NAVY -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 55% (113 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -14.5

CloseNAVY -14.5

Total62.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 14.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 42–32; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 26.1 against an average line of 13.9; 66.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs ARST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-14	55–19	W	O60
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	41–9	W	U66
Very close	MEM vs UAB 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-16.5	53–18	W	O62
Close	MEM vs USF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	59–50	L	O68.5
Close	UNC vs WAKE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	31–24	L	U64.5
Close	UTSA vs USF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	49–21	W	O66.5
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Close	JMU vs GASO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-15	35–10	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-3	1-4
NAVY LWLLL	2-4	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OOUOU	4-3	57%	3-4
NAVY OOUOO	5-1	83%	6-0

Went over in Q4. Of 152 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
NAVY	9-1 90%	4-5 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−10.0 →−11.1▼ 1.1#110

NAVY+1.2 →−0.4▼ 1.6#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

FAU

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#91

Offense

NAVY better ▶

#106

Defense

NAVY better ▶

#72

−1.7 #136

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+0.3 #46

79 plays #2

Pace

◀ FAU faster

62 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #58	21.5 #48	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #98	5.69 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #100	+0.13 #84	Even
Success rate	40% #109	41% #68	NAVY

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #22	35.4 #128	NAVY
Yards / play	7.62 #4	5.77 #97	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.42 #3	+0.19 #111	NAVY
Success rate	53% #5	43% #89	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	11.6 #6	8.6 #72	20.1 #17	4.6 #103	5.3 #97	9.9 #110
NAVY allowed	5.8 #81	5.5 #34	11.3 #53	4.0 #40	6.2 #65	10.2 #47

NAVY scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.5 #42	11.0 #30	18.5 #32	8.7 #23	9.3 #24	18.0 #18
FAU allowed	5.4 #73	10.1 #115	15.6 #105	10.6 #132	9.3 #128	19.9 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.