UConn @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Rice

Weather at kickoff78°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

UConn

5-2 · Power #87

final

Final

Rice

3-4 · Power #126

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -9.5

✓ RICE W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 30–20 RICE

✗ CONN (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -9.5

CloseCONN -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -9.5

no move

CloseCONN -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -9.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -10.5

model CONN -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 47% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -9.5

CloseCONN -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 9.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: RICE won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 48.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 9.7; 65.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 8 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	15–30	L	O44.5
Very close	JXST @ LT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	44–37	L	O55.5
Very close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-8.5	37–23	W	O50
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Very close	CONN @ DEL 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	41–44	L	O52.5
Very close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	41–40	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LLWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2
RICE LWWLL	3-4	43%	0-3	2-2

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OOUOO	5-2	71%	5-2
RICE OOUUO	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in OT. Of 507 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
RICE	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CONN 2–0 RICE CONN leads · 2 games since 2023 · CONN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Rice 10 @ UConn 17	CONN -6.5	CONN W
Oct 7 2023	UConn 38 @ Rice 31	RICE -10.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.2 →−2.2▲ 2.0#74

RICE−9.0 →−14.5▼ 5.5#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CONN

Longer bar = better

RICE

#26

Offense

◀ CONN better

#116

#75

Defense

Even

#71

+1.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

+0.3 #55

68 plays #53

Pace

◀ CONN faster

66 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #17	27.1 #92	CONN
Yards / play	6.90 #17	5.67 #84	CONN
PPA / play	+0.31 #12	+0.14 #93	CONN
Success rate	44% #57	36% #15	RICE

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	RICE off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #120	22.7 #56	CONN
Yards / play	4.66 #132	5.26 #51	CONN
PPA / play	+0.06 #109	+0.11 #79	CONN
Success rate	41% #101	45% #112	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.9 #34	11.3 #26	19.1 #22	9.7 #11	7.9 #50	17.6 #21
RICE allowed	7.9 #116	6.1 #46	14.0 #88	6.6 #102	6.6 #71	13.1 #93

RICE scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.4 #122	6.9 #95	10.3 #114	3.4 #120	5.7 #90	9.1 #116
CONN allowed	3.9 #37	7.7 #87	11.6 #60	2.3 #10	7.0 #81	9.3 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.