South Florida @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

6-1 · Power #29

final

Final

Memphis

6-1 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -3.5

✓ MEM W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 31–27 MEM

✗ USF (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -3.5

CloseUSF -3.5

Total68.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -3.5

no move

CloseUSF -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open68.5

▼ 10

Close58.5

Down 10 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -3.5 · unchangedmodel USF -1.5

model USF -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (192 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -3.5

CloseUSF -3.5

Total68.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like USF as a 3.5-point road favorite at MEM, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 8 similar games. 65 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 8.

Favorite won

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

1 of 813%

Below normal · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 5.1; 59.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEX @ OKST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Loose	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	27–34	L	O56
Loose	UNC @ BC 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	21–41	L	O50.5
Loose	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Loose	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Loose	TULN @ NAVY 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	35–0	W	U49
Loose	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	32–39	L	O54
Loose	ARK @ MEM 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-7	31–32	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	2-1
MEM WWWWL	6-1	86%	3-0	1-0

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; MEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OOOOU	4-3	57%	6-1
MEM UOOUU	2-5	29%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 382 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
MEM	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USF 4–10 MEM MEM leads · 14 games since 2001 · MEM has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Memphis 21 @ South Florida 3	MEM -10.5	MEM W
Nov 4 2023	South Florida 50 @ Memphis 59	MEM -13.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.9 →+9.5▲ 13.4#32

MEM+2.2 →+5.0▲ 2.8#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USF

Longer bar = better

MEM

#29

Offense

Even

#23

#32

Defense

Even

#37

+1.0 #12

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #20

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ USF faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #7	18.3 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.68 #23	5.20 #44	USF
PPA / play	+0.22 #35	+0.03 #37	Even
Success rate	45% #51	39% #41	Even

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #14	23.0 #57	MEM
Yards / play	6.54 #29	5.04 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #26	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	49% #22	38% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USF scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.7 #58	10.1 #46	16.9 #49	13.7 #1	11.1 #7	24.9 #1
MEM allowed	4.3 #45	9.1 #100	13.4 #78	1.9 #8	3.0 #8	4.9 #4

MEM scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	8.9 #19	11.4 #27	20.3 #18	7.6 #43	10.3 #14	17.9 #18
USF allowed	5.9 #80	6.3 #50	12.1 #67	3.4 #29	7.4 #90	10.9 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.