North Texas @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Fri, Oct 24, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

6-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

1-6 · Power #134

final

Closing spread

UNT -25.5

✓ UNT W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 43–17 CLT

✓ UNT (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -26.5

CloseUNT -25.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -26.5

1 → CLT

CloseUNT -25.5

1 pt toward Charlotte

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -26.5 · closed UNT -25.5 · moved 1 toward CLTmodel UNT -26.5

model UNT -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (243 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -26.5

CloseUNT -25.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 25.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 54–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 25.7; 53.7 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Close	ORE @ COLO 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-31	49–10	W	U62.5
Close	MIZ @ MASS 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	45–3	W	U53.5
Loose	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Loose	SMU @ MOST 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-28.5	28–10	L	U60.5
Loose	CIN @ OKST 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-23.5	49–17	W	O57.5
Loose	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24	35–14	L	U54
Loose	ISU @ ARST 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-21	24–16	L	U55.5
Loose	BOIS @ WYO 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & rest	-22	17–13	L	U54
Loose	MD @ CLT 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-28	56–21	W	O65

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WWWLW	5-2	71%	1-1	5-2
CLT WLWWL	3-4	43%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OOUOO	5-2	71%	6-1
CLT OOOUO	4-2	67%	1-6

Went over in Q4. Of 261 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CLT	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.2 →+5.4▲ 11.6#50

CLT−11.9 →−21.6▼ 9.7#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UNT

Longer bar = better

CLT

#19

Offense

◀ UNT better

#126

#59

Defense

◀ UNT better

#124

+1.3 #5

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−1.4 #134

72 plays #25

Pace

◀ UNT faster

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #1	34.9 #128	UNT
Yards / play	6.41 #32	6.19 #118	UNT
PPA / play	+0.28 #16	+0.19 #112	UNT
Success rate	47% #27	51% #137	UNT

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	CLT off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #129	25.7 #81	UNT
Yards / play	4.72 #128	5.05 #37	UNT
PPA / play	−0.04 #127	0.00 #29	UNT
Success rate	38% #118	43% #88	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	12.3 #3	12.4 #15	24.7 #4	11.3 #4	7.1 #67	18.4 #12
CLT allowed	8.7 #124	11.3 #126	20.0 #131	7.4 #112	7.4 #89	14.9 #118

CLT scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	1.9 #133	3.3 #132	5.1 #135	3.4 #118	8.6 #38	12.0 #87
UNT allowed	4.4 #53	6.4 #57	10.9 #49	7.4 #112	7.0 #80	14.4 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.