UTSA @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 8 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F12 mphgusts 30Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UTSA

3-3 · Power #65

final

Final

North Texas

5-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -3.5

✓ UNT W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 30–34 UNT

✓ UNT (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -5.5

CloseUNT -3.5

Total68.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -5.5

2 → UTSA

CloseUNT -3.5

2 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open68.5

▼ 5

Close63.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -5.5 · closed UNT -3.5 · moved 2 toward UTSAmodel UNT -5.5

model UNT -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (256 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (172 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -5.5

CloseUNT -3.5

Total68.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 3.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 55–17; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 63.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 4.5; 53.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	TULN vs USF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	45–10	W	U60.5
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Close	WSU vs COLO 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	56–14	W	O59.5
Close	SMU vs MEM 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-4.5	34–31	L	U68.5
Close	TCU vs TTU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	35–34	L	O66
Close	OKST vs WVU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	19–24	L	U59.75
Close	OKST vs WVU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	14–38	L	U64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-0
UNT LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OOUUO	4-2	67%	3-3
UNT OOOUO	4-2	67%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 149 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
UNT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UTSA 2–0 UNT UTSA leads · 2 games since 2023 · UTSA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2024	North Texas 27 @ UTSA 48	UTSA -1.5	UTSA W
Nov 4 2023	UTSA 37 @ North Texas 29	UTSA -8	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA−2.5 →−0.4▲ 2.1#69

UNT−6.2 →+2.5▲ 8.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UTSA

Longer bar = better

UNT

#55

Offense

UNT better ▶

#28

#68

Defense

Even

#62

+0.5 #45

Turnovers

UNT better ▶

+1.0 #13

67 plays #68

Pace

UNT faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #37	27.2 #92	UTSA
Yards / play	5.91 #58	4.96 #35	UNT
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	0.00 #28	Even
Success rate	42% #83	43% #91	Even

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #6	26.8 #87	UNT
Yards / play	6.26 #40	5.52 #74	UNT
PPA / play	+0.24 #29	+0.14 #90	UNT
Success rate	47% #35	36% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.8 #58	11.5 #29	18.3 #39	10.8 #6	5.3 #99	16.2 #32
UNT allowed	4.0 #45	6.3 #54	10.3 #46	8.2 #121	8.2 #111	16.3 #126

UNT scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	11.5 #7	13.3 #9	24.8 #6	9.7 #15	6.7 #73	16.3 #30
UTSA allowed	2.5 #21	6.8 #61	9.3 #32	9.8 #128	7.7 #100	17.5 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.