Mississippi State @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

4-2 · Power #56

final

Final

Florida

2-4 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

FLA -9.5

✓ MSST W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 21–31 FLA

✓ FLA (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -9.5

CloseFLA -9.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -9.5

no move

CloseFLA -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -9.5 · unchangedmodel FLA -10.5

model FLA -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 43% (124 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -9.5

CloseFLA -9.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 9.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 23–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 51.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 8.3; 42.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU vs VAN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	24–17	L	U52.5
Very close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Close	TULN vs ECU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-7	26–19	P	U53.5
Close	LOU vs JMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–10	W	U53.5
Close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-8	38–6	W	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST W–WWL	4-1	80%	1-1	2-1
FLA LLLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; FLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
FLA UUUOO	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	4-6 40%
FLA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSST 0–1 FLA FLA leads · 1 game since 2023 · FLA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Florida 45 @ Mississippi State 28	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+0.7 →+6.1▲ 5.4#47

FLA+13.1 →+13.0▼ 0.1#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MSST

Longer bar = better

FLA

#43

Offense

◀ MSST better

#100

#50

Defense

Even

#45

+0.8 #24

Turnovers

◀ MSST better

−0.5 #102

67 plays #67

Pace

◀ MSST faster

66 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #44	19.8 #38	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #57	5.23 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #38	+0.08 #64	MSST
Success rate	47% #34	38% #28	Even

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: MSST defense

	FLA off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #104	19.8 #39	MSST
Yards / play	5.32 #98	5.06 #40	MSST
PPA / play	+0.06 #106	+0.07 #56	MSST
Success rate	41% #90	41% #63	MSST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	10.8 #10	6.8 #100	17.7 #44	7.5 #48	8.5 #41	16.0 #34
FLA allowed	3.5 #35	6.5 #56	10.0 #37	4.3 #52	5.5 #50	9.8 #41

FLA scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.3 #48	7.7 #87	15.0 #69	5.0 #87	2.3 #133	7.3 #128
MSST allowed	2.7 #21	5.2 #26	7.8 #18	2.8 #16	8.0 #106	10.8 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.