Mississippi State @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F7 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

4-1 · Power #56

final

Final

Texas A&M

4-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -17.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 19–36 TA&M

✓ TA&M (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -13.5

CloseTA&M -17.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -13.5

4 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -17.5

4 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -13.5 · closed TA&M -17.5 · moved 4 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -13.5

model TA&M -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (128 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -13.5

CloseTA&M -17.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 17.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TA&M won 31–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.4 against an average line of 16.3; 56.6 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LSU vs ARK 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	34–31	L	O55
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	ASU vs TXST 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	34–15	W	U61.5
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-13	27–20	L	U62
Close	SMU vs BC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-19	38–28	L	O54
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	43–37	L	O56
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	45–24	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WW–WW	4-0	100%	1-0	2-0
TA&M LLWL	1-3	25%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UUOUO	2-3	40%	4-1
TA&M OOOU	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 41 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%
TA&M	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MSST 9–10 TA&M TA&M leads · 19 games since 1912 · TA&M has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Texas A&M 34 @ Mississippi State 24	TA&M -21.5	MSST W
Nov 11 2023	Mississippi State 10 @ Texas A&M 51	TA&M -16.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+0.7 →+7.7▲ 7.0#37

TA&M+14.3 →+17.6▲ 3.3#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MSST

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#37

Offense

Even

#42

#34

Defense

Even

#36

+1.2 #15

Turnovers

◀ MSST better

−0.3 #93

70 plays #33

Pace

Even

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #21	24.0 #74	MSST
Yards / play	6.17 #51	4.71 #29	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.23 #39	0.00 #33	Even
Success rate	48% #35	33% #9	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #42	17.6 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #30	4.78 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #44	0.00 #38	Even
Success rate	45% #53	38% #35	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	12.4 #7	8.2 #79	20.6 #28	9.0 #29	9.0 #36	18.0 #20
TA&M allowed	5.8 #90	5.0 #31	10.8 #57	5.5 #81	7.8 #102	13.3 #97

TA&M scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.8 #45	15.3 #6	23.0 #17	6.0 #67	6.8 #76	12.8 #77
MSST allowed	3.2 #34	4.8 #26	8.0 #25	2.0 #12	6.2 #67	8.2 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.