Kentucky @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

2-2 · Power #52

final

Final

Georgia

3-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -19.5

✓ UGA W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 14–34 UGA

✓ UGA (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -20.5

CloseUGA -19.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -20.5

1 → UK

CloseUGA -19.5

1 pt toward Kentucky

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -20.5 · closed UGA -19.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel UGA -20

model UGA -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (208 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -20.5

CloseUGA -19.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 19.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 35–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 20.5; 47.3 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Very close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21	31–13	L	U50
Very close	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	31–14	L	U47
Very close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Very close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-22	49–27	P	O51
Very close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-21	17–12	L	U53
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	38–9	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LWLL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-1
UGA LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2
UGA OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UGA	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UK 0–2 UGA UGA leads · 2 games since 2023 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Georgia 13 @ Kentucky 12	UGA -21.5	UK W
Oct 7 2023	Kentucky 13 @ Georgia 51	UGA -15	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.2 →+4.1▼ 1.1#55

UGA+21.0 →+20.0▼ 1.0#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

UGA

#97

Offense

UGA better ▶

#43

#70

Defense

UGA better ▶

#53

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #105

66 plays #81

Pace

UGA faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	UK off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #80	19.5 #43	UGA
Yards / play	5.28 #104	5.18 #59	UGA
PPA / play	+0.01 #116	+0.07 #66	UGA
Success rate	42% #86	39% #43	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #47	26.0 #84	UGA
Yards / play	6.05 #58	5.73 #94	UGA
PPA / play	+0.21 #48	+0.01 #43	Even
Success rate	51% #20	40% #57	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UK scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	9.5 #24	5.8 #108	15.3 #71	5.0 #90	6.8 #75	11.8 #87
UGA allowed	7.0 #104	5.0 #30	12.0 #74	2.5 #23	4.3 #31	6.8 #16

UGA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	7.0 #55	10.3 #48	17.3 #51	9.5 #20	6.3 #84	15.8 #45
UK allowed	2.5 #28	13.3 #133	15.8 #103	2.5 #23	7.8 #98	10.3 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.