Texas @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F15 mphgusts 32Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas

3-1 · Power #14

final

Final

Florida

1-3 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -4.5

✓ FLA W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 22–17 FLA

✗ TEX (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -6.5

CloseTEX -4.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -6.5

2 → FLA

CloseTEX -4.5

2 pts toward Florida

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -6.5 · closed TEX -4.5 · moved 2 toward FLAmodel TEX -7.5

model TEX -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (155 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -6.5

CloseTEX -4.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 4.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 29–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 4.3; 54.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU @ WIS 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings	-6.5	28–13	W	U47
Close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Close	BYU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–21	L	O40.5
Loose	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Loose	TENN @ UK 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3.5	33–27	W	O50.5
Loose	ISU @ KU 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	36–45	L	O52.5
Loose	TA&M @ FLA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3.5	33–20	W	O45.5
Loose	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Loose	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Loose	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-7	21–38	L	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	1-2
FLA WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1
FLA UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3

Went over in Q3. Of 229 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
FLA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEX 3–2 FLA (1 tied) TEX leads · 6 games since 1924 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Florida 17 @ Texas 49	TEX -24.5	TEX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+23.2 →+21.0▼ 2.2#5

FLA+13.1 →+11.4▼ 1.7#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TEX

Longer bar = better

FLA

#64

Offense

◀ TEX better

#108

Defense

◀ TEX better

#31

+0.8 #34

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

−0.5 #102

71 plays #29

Pace

◀ TEX faster

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	TEX off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #56	16.0 #24	FLA
Yards / play	6.22 #48	4.82 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	0.00 #36	FLA
Success rate	45% #49	37% #28	FLA

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	FLA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #100	7.8 #2	TEX
Yards / play	4.92 #121	3.59 #1	TEX
PPA / play	0.00 #120	−0.29 #2	TEX
Success rate	42% #89	32% #8	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.8 #30	9.5 #60	18.3 #42	8.3 #40	5.3 #97	13.5 #67
FLA allowed	1.8 #15	6.3 #58	8.0 #28	4.0 #47	4.0 #25	8.0 #28

FLA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	5.0 #96	9.3 #66	14.3 #79	4.3 #102	3.5 #122	7.8 #124
TEX allowed	0.0 #1	4.3 #20	4.3 #9	0.0 #1	3.5 #22	3.5 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.