Penn State @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

3-1 · Power #17

final

Final

UCLA

0-4 · Power #70

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -24.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 37–13 UCLA

✗ PSU (96%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -25.5

ClosePSU -24.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -25.5

1 → UCLA

ClosePSU -24.5

1 pt toward UCLA

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -25.5 · closed PSU -24.5 · moved 1 toward UCLAmodel PSU -21.5

model PSU -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (212 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -25.5

ClosePSU -24.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 24.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 42–37 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25 against an average line of 22.6; 51.6 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Close	ORE @ UCLA 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-23.5	34–13	L	U54
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-26	56–23	W	O50
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	UTAH @ USU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-20.5	38–21	L	O43.5
Close	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-22	41–7	W	O45
Close	ORE @ ASU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	49–13	W	O53.5
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	41–16	W	O53
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	17–13	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LLLL	0-4	0%	—	0-4
UCLA LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-1

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; UCLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1
UCLA OUUU	1-3	25%	0-4

Went over in Q3. Of 440 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
UCLA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PSU 1–0 UCLA PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	UCLA 11 @ Penn State 27	PSU -29.5	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+20.4 →+18.6▼ 1.8#9

UCLA+5.3 →−4.6▼ 9.9#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

PSU

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#42

Offense

◀ PSU better

#90

#14

Defense

◀ PSU better

#127

+1.3 #12

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−0.5 #108

66 plays #79

Pace

◀ PSU faster

59 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #19	31.3 #119	PSU
Yards / play	6.02 #60	6.28 #121	PSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #51	+0.30 #130	PSU
Success rate	48% #38	53% #137	PSU

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	UCLA off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #135	11.8 #10	PSU
Yards / play	5.47 #92	4.14 #12	PSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	−0.08 #17	PSU
Success rate	45% #59	35% #18	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.0 #76	9.3 #66	15.3 #71	8.0 #42	14.0 #1	22.0 #6
UCLA allowed	8.3 #118	11.0 #121	19.3 #124	1.8 #12	10.3 #128	12.0 #78

UCLA scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	0.0 #135	5.0 #117	5.0 #134	4.8 #98	4.5 #108	9.3 #115
PSU allowed	0.0 #1	1.5 #4	1.5 #2	1.8 #12	5.3 #53	7.0 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.