Minnesota @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

3-1 · Power #69

final

Final

Ohio State

4-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -23.5

✓ OSU W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 9–33 OSU

✓ OSU (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -24.5

CloseOSU -23.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -24.5

1 → MINN

CloseOSU -23.5

1 pt toward Minnesota

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -24.5 · closed OSU -23.5 · moved 1 toward MINNmodel OSU -26.5

model OSU -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 49% (69 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (218 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -24.5

CloseOSU -23.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 23.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OSU won 42–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 21.8; 45 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs TA&M 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	24–20	L	U48
Close	OSU vs NEB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-25	21–17	L	U48.5
Close	OSU vs MICH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-20	10–13	L	U41.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	PSU vs RUTG 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	27–6	W	U40
Close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	31–13	L	U50
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5
Close	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	31–14	L	U47
Close	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	35–14	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN L–LL	0-3	0%	0-1	—
OSU WWLW	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
OSU UOUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 232 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
OSU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MINN 0–1 OSU OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Minnesota 3 @ Ohio State 37	OSU -27.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+8.6 →+4.3▼ 4.3#52

OSU+26.4 →+25.3▼ 1.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MINN

Longer bar = better

OSU

#52

Offense

OSU better ▶

#22

#40

Defense

OSU better ▶

+0.5 #44

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #57

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ MINN faster

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MINN off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #51	5.5 #1	OSU
Yards / play	6.00 #62	3.99 #8	OSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	−0.19 #5	OSU
Success rate	48% #36	35% #21	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #37	16.3 #25	Even
Yards / play	7.28 #12	4.18 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #32	+0.06 #65	OSU
Success rate	54% #8	40% #56	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	8.8 #30	13.8 #19	22.5 #21	6.8 #57	4.3 #112	11.0 #92
OSU allowed	0.0 #1	1.5 #3	1.5 #1	2.3 #23	1.8 #2	4.0 #2

OSU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.0 #77	9.5 #59	15.5 #64	9.5 #22	11.3 #9	20.8 #8
MINN allowed	3.5 #45	5.0 #31	8.5 #32	3.5 #40	4.3 #31	7.8 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.