Rutgers @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

3-1 · Power #62

final

Final

Minnesota

2-1 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -3.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 24–27 MINN

✓ MINN (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -3.5

CloseMINN -3.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -3.5

no move

CloseMINN -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -3.5 · unchangedmodel MINN -3.5 matches the line

model MINN -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (231 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -3.5

CloseMINN -3.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 3.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 31–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 2.9; 50.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Close	AFA vs UNLV 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–31	L	O46.5
Close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-2	29–21	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG LWWL	2-2	50%	—	0-1
MINN L–L	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1
MINN UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 515 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	9-1 90%
MINN	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RUTG 1–0 MINN RUTG leads · 1 game since 2023 · RUTG has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Minnesota 19 @ Rutgers 26	MINN -6.5	RUTG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+3.4 →+4.6▲ 1.2#48

MINN+8.6 →+4.3▼ 4.3#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

RUTG

Longer bar = better

MINN

#32

Offense

◀ RUTG better

#58

#96

Defense

MINN better ▶

#18

+0.5 #52

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #55

72 plays #25

Pace

Even

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	41.8 #22	12.3 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #51	3.70 #6	MINN
PPA / play	+0.27 #30	−0.02 #30	Even
Success rate	51% #25	33% #17	Even

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #50	24.0 #78	MINN
Yards / play	5.98 #63	6.45 #124	MINN
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.11 #84	Even
Success rate	46% #48	44% #99	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	10.3 #22	15.3 #16	25.5 #13	6.8 #64	9.5 #32	16.3 #43
MINN allowed	2.3 #30	2.0 #12	4.3 #13	4.7 #68	3.3 #26	8.0 #32

MINN scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	11.7 #18	13.7 #25	25.3 #14	5.7 #78	3.3 #125	9.0 #112
RUTG allowed	7.0 #101	5.8 #48	12.8 #78	7.0 #103	4.3 #36	11.3 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.