Duke @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Duke

2-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

3-1 · Power #92

final

Closing spread

DUKE -3.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 31–29 SYR

✓ DUKE (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -5.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total58.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -5.5

2 → SYR

CloseDUKE -3.5

2 pts toward Syracuse

Total

Open58.5

▲ 1

Close59.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -5.5 · closed DUKE -3.5 · moved 2 toward SYRmodel SYR -4.5

model SYR -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (161 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (145 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -5.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total58.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3.5-point road favorite at SYR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 38–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 2.6; 63.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU @ PITT 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	34–38	L	O61.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	OU @ TTU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	48–51	L	O65.5
Very close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Close	BOIS @ UNLV 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	44–20	W	O62
Close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Close	GT @ UNC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–34	W	O60.5
Close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	45–18	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE –LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
SYR LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2
SYR OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 48% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	8-2 80%
SYR	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DUKE 5–1 SYR DUKE leads · 6 games since 1938 · DUKE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+1.9 →+1.8▼ 0.1#64

SYR+5.9 →+3.7▼ 2.2#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

DUKE

Longer bar = better

SYR

#39

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#54

#100

Defense

Even

#99

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

SYR better ▶

0.0 #76

65 plays #87

Pace

SYR faster ▶

79 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #52	27.5 #99	DUKE
Yards / play	7.14 #18	5.84 #96	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.25 #40	+0.11 #83	DUKE
Success rate	47% #45	46% #119	DUKE

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #33	32.3 #118	SYR
Yards / play	6.00 #62	6.08 #113	SYR
PPA / play	+0.17 #64	+0.16 #100	SYR
Success rate	45% #58	41% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	3.3 #116	10.0 #56	13.3 #90	10.3 #19	10.5 #22	20.8 #12
SYR allowed	6.8 #97	8.8 #98	15.5 #103	6.0 #87	6.0 #72	12.0 #81

SYR scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.0 #79	14.5 #20	20.5 #33	5.8 #77	10.3 #29	16.0 #45
DUKE allowed	7.0 #101	10.0 #114	17.0 #112	6.8 #99	8.5 #104	15.3 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.