California @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

California

3-1 · Power #76

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

1-2 · Power #84

final

Closing spread

BC -6.5

✓ CAL W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 21–28 BC

✗ BC (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -6.5

CloseBC -6.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBC -6.5

no move

CloseBC -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BC -6.5 · unchangedmodel BC -8.5

model BC -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 58% (174 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -6.5

CloseBC -6.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 6.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 28–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 5.7; 47.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Very close	UL vs MRSH 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-5	3–31	L	U57.5
Close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar season form	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	16–28	L	U54.5
Close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	JXST vs SHSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	21–11	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0
BC WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1
BC OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
BC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAL 1–1 BC Series tied · 2 games since 1986 · CAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+3.8 →−0.6▼ 4.4#70

BC+1.8 →+3.4▲ 1.6#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CAL

Longer bar = better

#104

Offense

BC better ▶

#39

#30

Defense

◀ CAL better

#51

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

−0.7 #108

68 plays #59

Pace

BC faster ▶

72 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: BC defense

	CAL off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #92	27.3 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #98	5.01 #49	BC
PPA / play	0.00 #121	0.00 #39	BC
Success rate	39% #104	33% #19	BC

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #21	16.5 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #38	4.82 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #55	−0.08 #19	CAL
Success rate	48% #42	36% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.0 #80	3.5 #126	9.5 #113	7.0 #57	7.5 #59	14.5 #61
BC allowed	5.3 #87	7.0 #70	12.3 #75	5.7 #79	4.3 #42	10.0 #51

BC scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.7 #98	16.0 #10	20.7 #33	9.0 #32	8.0 #53	17.0 #34
CAL allowed	0.0 #1	5.8 #47	5.8 #16	6.8 #101	4.0 #32	10.8 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.