UCLA @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

0-3 · Power #70

final

Final

Northwestern

1-2 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -6.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 18–24 NU

✓ NU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -6.5

CloseNU -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -6.5

no move

CloseNU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -6.5 · unchangedmodel NU -4.5

model NU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 58% (174 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -6.5

CloseNU -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 6.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 17–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 4.7; 39 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WYO vs USU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-5.25	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	NEV vs CSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	14–17	L	U45
Close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Close	LT vs MTSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	48–21	W	O47.5
Close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	27–20	W	O46
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Close	DUKE vs FSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	23–16	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-1
NU LWW	2-1	67%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA OUU	1-2	33%	0-3
NU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+5.3 →−4.7▼ 10.0#80

NU−2.5 →−4.2▼ 1.7#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UCLA

Longer bar = better

#90

Offense

Even

#99

#131

Defense

NU better ▶

#82

−0.7 #110

Turnovers

◀ UCLA better

−2.0 #136

59 plays #128

Pace

NU faster ▶

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #134	21.3 #62	NU
Yards / play	5.47 #92	5.42 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.16 #101	UCLA
Success rate	45% #56	42% #86	UCLA

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NU offense

	NU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #115	36.0 #128	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #84	6.60 #126	NU
PPA / play	−0.08 #135	+0.37 #134	Even
Success rate	45% #63	56% #137	NU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	0.0 #133	5.7 #108	5.7 #131	5.3 #82	3.3 #126	8.7 #114
NU allowed	4.7 #72	7.7 #81	12.3 #75	5.7 #79	3.3 #25	9.0 #41

NU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	6.0 #80	2.3 #135	8.3 #121	2.0 #128	9.3 #33	11.3 #91
UCLA allowed	10.0 #125	10.0 #115	20.0 #126	2.3 #23	13.7 #135	16.0 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.