Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

4-0 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

2-1 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

GT -11.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 32–20 WAKE

✓ GT (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -14.5

CloseGT -11.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGT -14.5

3 → WAKE

CloseGT -11.5

3 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GT -14.5 · closed GT -11.5 · moved 3 toward WAKEmodel GT -15.5

model GT -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 44% (44 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (145 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -14.5

CloseGT -11.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GT as an 11.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 30–29; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 11.3; 53.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	TULN @ RICE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-10	30–28	L	O55
Close	KSU @ OKST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-11.5	21–29	L	U54
Close	LIB @ FIU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-10	38–6	W	U53.5
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-12.5	29–27	L	O50.5
Close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	52–28	W	O59.5
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Close	UCLA @ SDSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & total	-13.5	35–10	W	U49
Close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-7	24–20	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
WAKE LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: GT away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0
WAKE UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in OT. Of 466 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
WAKE	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GT 1–0 WAKE GT leads · 1 game since 2023 · GT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Georgia Tech 30 @ Wake Forest 16	WAKE -3.5	GT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT+6.9 →+9.4▲ 2.5#32

WAKE−4.6 →−6.8▼ 2.2#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#27

Offense

◀ GT better

#89

#46

Defense

WAKE better ▶

#23

−0.8 #113

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #122

61 plays #120

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Even matchup

	GT off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #31	17.7 #36	Even
Yards / play	8.10 #6	4.17 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #52	−0.06 #21	WAKE
Success rate	52% #19	33% #14	Even

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: GT defense

	WAKE off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #87	19.3 #46	GT
Yards / play	6.35 #46	4.80 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.03 #49	GT
Success rate	37% #120	38% #47	GT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GT scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	7.8 #49	11.0 #46	18.8 #45	8.8 #34	11.3 #15	20.0 #16
WAKE allowed	6.7 #96	2.0 #12	8.7 #42	3.3 #40	5.7 #66	9.0 #41

WAKE scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	14.0 #5	3.3 #128	17.3 #58	8.0 #45	0.0 #135	8.0 #119
GT allowed	3.3 #43	4.3 #27	7.5 #30	4.3 #57	7.5 #86	11.8 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.