Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

2-2 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

2-3 · Power #73

final

Closing spread

VT -4.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 22–28 VT

✗ VT (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -6.5

CloseVT -4.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -6.5

2 → WAKE

CloseVT -4.5

2 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -6.5 · closed VT -4.5 · moved 2 toward WAKEmodel VT -8.5

model VT -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (170 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (154 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -6.5

CloseVT -4.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 4.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 30–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 5.3; 54.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	24–17	P	U46.5
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	30–45	L	O52
Very close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Very close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	AUB vs WKU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	41–17	W	O54
Very close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	30–34	L	O52.5
Very close	UTSA vs FAU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	38–24	W	O52.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWLW	2-2	50%	—	1-1
VT LLL–W	1-3	25%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2
VT UOOUU	2-3	40%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 533 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
VT	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WAKE 0–1 VT VT leads · 1 game since 2023 · VT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Wake Forest 13 @ Virginia Tech 30	VT -1.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−4.6 →−4.4▲ 0.2#80

VT+6.8 →+0.3▼ 6.5#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WAKE

Longer bar = better

#83

Offense

Even

#84

#28

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#111

−0.5 #101

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #100

65 plays #92

Pace

VT faster ▶

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #82	28.0 #103	WAKE
Yards / play	6.32 #44	6.13 #113	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.25 #123	WAKE
Success rate	38% #123	45% #106	Even

When VT has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	VT off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #96	20.8 #53	WAKE
Yards / play	5.52 #83	4.35 #20	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	−0.06 #22	WAKE
Success rate	43% #77	34% #15	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	10.5 #14	6.8 #100	17.3 #48	6.8 #57	0.8 #135	7.5 #125
VT allowed	4.2 #58	7.4 #77	11.6 #63	6.0 #88	10.4 #128	16.4 #126

VT scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	4.4 #104	8.0 #87	12.4 #99	4.8 #89	6.4 #82	11.2 #91
WAKE allowed	5.8 #90	1.5 #4	7.3 #21	6.0 #88	5.8 #60	11.8 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.