Ohio @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Ohio

3-2 · Power #78

final

Final

Ball State

1-3 · Power #133

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -14.5

✓ BALL W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 34–19 BALL

✗ OHIO (86%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -16.5

CloseOHIO -14.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -16.5

2 → BALL

CloseOHIO -14.5

2 pts toward Ball State

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -16.5 · closed OHIO -14.5 · moved 2 toward BALLmodel OHIO -17

model OHIO -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 55% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (153 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -16.5

CloseOHIO -14.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 14.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 20–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.4 against an average line of 14.1; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Very close	MRSH @ USM 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	37–3	W	U53.5
Very close	WKU @ NMSU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-18	41–28	L	O53.5
Close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	FAU @ FIU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-15.25	52–7	W	O54.5
Close	TLSA @ TEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	27–16	L	U53.5
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Close	CMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	28–21	L	U60.5
Close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	42–34	L	O48.5
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-11	55–7	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-0	1-1
BALL LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OUUOO	3-2	60%	3-2
BALL UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
BALL	2-8 20%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OHIO 1–0 BALL OHIO leads · 1 game since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Ball State 21 @ Ohio 42	OHIO -17.5	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.2 →−1.5▲ 1.7#73

BALL−15.8 →−19.5▼ 3.7#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

OHIO

Longer bar = better

BALL

#71

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#114

#102

Defense

◀ OHIO better

#122

+0.2 #60

Turnovers

◀ OHIO better

−0.8 #117

67 plays #60

Pace

◀ OHIO faster

54 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #75	33.3 #125	OHIO
Yards / play	6.26 #46	6.32 #123	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.13 #81	+0.31 #131	OHIO
Success rate	42% #82	45% #107	OHIO

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #130	27.2 #96	OHIO
Yards / play	5.08 #112	6.72 #129	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	+0.11 #82	Even
Success rate	39% #111	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	5.4 #86	12.4 #28	17.8 #47	6.8 #55	4.2 #113	11.0 #95
BALL allowed	13.0 #133	5.3 #40	18.3 #119	6.0 #88	9.0 #113	15.0 #116

BALL scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.5 #115	5.3 #116	8.8 #122	3.0 #123	3.8 #122	6.8 #129
OHIO allowed	8.2 #115	8.8 #98	17.0 #112	2.6 #29	7.6 #96	10.2 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.