Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

1-3 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

1-3 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

M-OH -4.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 20–16 NIU

✓ M-OH (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3.5

CloseM-OH -4.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -3.5

1 → M-OH

CloseM-OH -4.5

1 pt toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open38.5

▲ 1

Close39.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -3.5 · closed M-OH -4.5 · moved 1 toward M-OHmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3.5

CloseM-OH -4.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 4.5-point road favorite at NIU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 25–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 39.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3.3; 52.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	17–24	L	U42
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	31–20	W	O43.5
Very close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	WYO @ UNM 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–14	W	O37
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Close	NEB @ MSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–20	L	O34.5
Close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–38	L	O40

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0
NIU LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; NIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
NIU UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 58% of games with totals 35.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
NIU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

M-OH 1–0 NIU M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2024	Northern Illinois 9 @ Miami (OH) 20	M-OH -2.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−2.8 →−6.9▼ 4.1#90

NIU−5.3 →−9.9▼ 4.6#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

M-OH

Longer bar = better

NIU

#87

Offense

◀ M-OH better

#136

#76

Defense

NIU better ▶

#48

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

NIU better ▶

+0.3 #56

53 plays #137

Pace

NIU faster ▶

63 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	M-OH off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #97	20.3 #50	NIU
Yards / play	6.44 #40	5.02 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.01 #42	NIU
Success rate	41% #101	39% #51	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	NIU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	10.3 #137	25.8 #82	M-OH
Yards / play	3.96 #136	4.91 #41	M-OH
PPA / play	−0.07 #135	+0.07 #67	M-OH
Success rate	30% #137	46% #113	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.0 #55	5.8 #109	12.8 #97	8.8 #33	1.8 #132	10.5 #100
NIU allowed	2.5 #26	5.0 #31	7.5 #23	3.3 #33	9.5 #119	12.8 #93

NIU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.3 #126	3.3 #132	5.5 #131	1.5 #129	3.3 #125	4.8 #134
M-OH allowed	2.5 #26	6.8 #62	9.3 #43	7.0 #108	9.5 #119	16.5 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.