Miami (OH) @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F5 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

2-3 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Akron

2-4 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

M-OH -11.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 29–17 AKR

✓ M-OH (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -9.5

CloseM-OH -11.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -9.5

2 → M-OH

CloseM-OH -11.5

2 pts toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -9.5 · closed M-OH -11.5 · moved 2 toward M-OHmodel M-OH -13

model M-OH -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 47% (48 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (182 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -9.5

CloseM-OH -11.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as an 11.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 20–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 10.9; 49.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	BGSU @ KENT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	49–19	W	O41.5
Very close	LT @ NMSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	30–33	L	O48.5
Very close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Very close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5
Very close	JXST @ FIU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9	41–16	W	O48
Very close	WMU @ MASS 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	21–3	W	U46.5
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	20–10	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WLLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	2-0
AKR LWWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UOOUU	2-3	40%	2-3
AKR OUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
AKR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

M-OH 23–8 AKR M-OH leads · 31 games since 1993 · M-OH has won the last 9 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2023	Akron 0 @ Miami (OH) 19	M-OH -17	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−2.8 →−5.6▼ 2.8#84

AKR−13.5 →−20.0▼ 6.5#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

M-OH

Longer bar = better

AKR

#88

Offense

◀ M-OH better

#124

#60

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#108

+0.2 #54

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #66

57 plays #136

Pace

AKR faster ▶

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #95	30.5 #115	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #55	6.55 #129	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.16 #99	Even
Success rate	41% #101	43% #89	Even

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	AKR off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #122	23.4 #68	M-OH
Yards / play	4.80 #126	4.83 #31	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.01 #122	+0.05 #48	M-OH
Success rate	38% #125	43% #92	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	5.6 #82	6.6 #104	12.2 #101	9.4 #21	2.0 #134	11.4 #91
AKR allowed	6.7 #100	12.0 #128	18.7 #124	5.7 #89	6.2 #64	11.8 #76

AKR scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.5 #103	8.0 #84	12.5 #95	3.5 #116	2.3 #133	5.8 #133
M-OH allowed	4.8 #69	5.4 #37	10.2 #47	5.6 #84	7.6 #92	13.2 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.