Central Michigan @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F2 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

3-2 · Power #103

final

Final

Akron

1-4 · Power #127

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -6.5

✓ AKR W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 27–21 AKR

✗ CMU (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -7.5

CloseCMU -6.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCMU -7.5

1 → AKR

CloseCMU -6.5

1 pt toward Akron

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Close47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CMU -7.5 · closed CMU -6.5 · moved 1 toward AKRmodel CMU -6

model CMU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (133 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 60% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -7.5

CloseCMU -6.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 6.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AKR won 28–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 5.9; 45.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ AKR 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9	27–9	W	U51.5
Very close	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–16	W	O45
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	10–7	L	U47
Close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Close	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Close	NAVY @ TEM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	18–32	L	O46
Close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-2	2-0
AKR LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: CMU away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2
AKR UOUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 440 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
AKR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CMU 1–0 AKR CMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · CMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Akron 10 @ Central Michigan 17	CMU -10.5	AKR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−14.4 →−13.2▲ 1.2#119

AKR−13.5 →−20.9▼ 7.4#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CMU

Longer bar = better

AKR

#94

Offense

◀ CMU better

#131

#99

Defense

Even

#110

+0.6 #38

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #49

64 plays #99

Pace

AKR faster ▶

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #103	32.2 #123	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #109	6.69 #128	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #65	+0.13 #90	CMU
Success rate	41% #99	44% #100	Even

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: CMU defense

	AKR off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #128	29.0 #109	Even
Yards / play	4.52 #131	5.87 #101	CMU
PPA / play	−0.06 #134	+0.15 #92	CMU
Success rate	35% #132	43% #95	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	7.6 #46	8.8 #71	16.4 #60	4.2 #104	1.2 #133	5.4 #132
AKR allowed	7.4 #107	13.0 #131	20.4 #128	6.2 #95	5.6 #57	11.8 #75

AKR scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	5.4 #86	6.8 #98	12.2 #101	1.4 #131	2.8 #130	4.2 #135
CMU allowed	4.8 #70	10.2 #113	15.0 #97	7.0 #108	7.0 #84	14.0 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.