Central Michigan @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F13 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Central Michigan

3-3 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

3-3 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

BGSU -3.5

✓ CMU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 20–25 BGSU

✗ BGSU (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -5.5

CloseBGSU -3.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -5.5

2 → CMU

CloseBGSU -3.5

2 pts toward Central Michigan

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -5.5 · closed BGSU -3.5 · moved 2 toward CMUmodel BGSU -9.5

model BGSU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (249 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (166 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -5.5

CloseBGSU -3.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 27–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 4.1; 43.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Very close	SDSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	27–24	W	O47.5
Very close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & total	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Close	SDSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	14–10	L	U47
Close	MRSH vs WMU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	27–20	W	U53.5
Close	TROY vs ULM 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6	9–13	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLWWL	3-3	50%	1-3	1-2
BGSU WWWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	0-1

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OOOUO	4-2	67%	3-3
BGSU OUOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BGSU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CMU 0–1 BGSU BGSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BGSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2024	Bowling Green 23 @ Central Michigan 13	BGSU -14.5	CMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−14.4 →−13.4▲ 1.0#115

BGSU−4.2 →−7.1▼ 2.9#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CMU

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#92

Offense

◀ CMU better

#118

#104

Defense

BGSU better ▶

#86

+0.7 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #36

64 plays #102

Pace

◀ CMU faster

61 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #112	25.3 #75	BGSU
Yards / play	5.26 #101	6.05 #113	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #49	+0.09 #66	Even
Success rate	40% #106	43% #88	Even

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #105	28.8 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #118	5.92 #106	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #125	+0.17 #106	Even
Success rate	37% #124	44% #102	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	6.8 #57	8.5 #76	15.3 #66	4.0 #104	2.5 #131	6.5 #133
BGSU allowed	7.0 #107	7.0 #67	14.0 #85	6.7 #106	4.7 #33	11.3 #63

BGSU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.8 #114	5.0 #116	8.8 #123	3.8 #112	9.7 #21	13.5 #61
CMU allowed	4.0 #46	10.8 #119	14.8 #97	8.2 #121	5.8 #60	14.0 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.