Bowling Green @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

3-4 · Power #120

final

Final

Kent State

2-5 · Power #132

▲ winner

Closing spread

BGSU -7.5

✓ KENT W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 29–21 KENT

✗ BGSU (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -8.5

CloseBGSU -7.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -8.5

1 → KENT

CloseBGSU -7.5

1 pt toward Kent State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 4

Close46.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -8.5 · closed BGSU -7.5 · moved 1 toward KENTmodel BGSU -11

model BGSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 52% (125 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (245 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -8.5

CloseBGSU -7.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 7.5-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KENT won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 7.6; 47.4 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	FIU @ KENN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9	26–27	L	O42
Close	CONN @ FIU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	33–12	W	U46.5
Close	BC @ CONN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-8	3–13	L	U44
Close	CSU @ AFA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	21–13	W	U44
Close	FIU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-7	21–30	L	O47
Close	USM @ ARST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	37–44	L	O46.5
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	41–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	0-2
KENT WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-0	2-3

Venue/role: BGSU away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UOOOU	4-3	57%	3-4
KENT OOUUO	4-2	67%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
KENT	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BGSU 2–0 KENT BGSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · BGSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Kent State 6 @ Bowling Green 27	BGSU -23.5	KENT W
Nov 8 2023	Bowling Green 49 @ Kent State 19	BGSU -11.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−4.2 →−9.6▼ 5.4#104

KENT−26.4 →−21.9▲ 4.5#135

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BGSU

Longer bar = better

KENT

#123

Offense

Even

#132

#85

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#127

+0.3 #53

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

−0.3 #95

61 plays #127

Pace

Even

59 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #117	38.7 #134	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #114	6.51 #127	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	+0.23 #127	Even
Success rate	37% #129	46% #118	Even

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	KENT off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #127	25.6 #81	BGSU
Yards / play	4.50 #135	5.97 #113	BGSU
PPA / play	−0.04 #129	+0.10 #71	BGSU
Success rate	34% #135	42% #76	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.7 #117	4.7 #122	8.4 #125	3.3 #124	8.3 #44	11.6 #89
KENT allowed	10.4 #131	11.3 #127	21.7 #134	11.4 #135	5.6 #52	17.0 #128

KENT scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	5.4 #78	3.0 #134	8.4 #125	5.0 #85	4.4 #113	9.4 #115
BGSU allowed	6.0 #88	8.4 #93	14.4 #92	7.1 #108	4.0 #23	11.1 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.