Buffalo @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

4-4 · Power #118

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

3-5 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

BGSU -2.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 20–23 BGSU

✗ BGSU (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -2.5

CloseBGSU -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -2.5

no move

CloseBGSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel BGSU -5.5

model BGSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (276 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -2.5

CloseBGSU -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 28–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 3.9; 46.2 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	NEV vs AFA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	19–22	L	U44.5
Very close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Very close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	27–33	L	O42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LLLLL	2-6	25%	1-2	1-1
BGSU WLWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	0-3

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UUOOU	4-4	50%	4-4
BGSU OOOUU	4-4	50%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BGSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 9–13 BGSU BGSU leads · 22 games since 2000 · BUFF has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Bowling Green 24 @ Buffalo 14	BUFF -2.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−9.8 →−13.3▼ 3.5#116

BGSU−4.2 →−10.5▼ 6.3#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BUFF

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#102

Offense

◀ BUFF better

#123

#46

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#86

−0.5 #109

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

+0.3 #57

70 plays #37

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

63 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #92	25.4 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.28 #100	5.95 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #108	+0.12 #81	BGSU
Success rate	40% #106	42% #76	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	BGSU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #120	21.6 #47	BUFF
Yards / play	4.99 #118	4.73 #21	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.02 #129	+0.12 #83	BUFF
Success rate	37% #124	38% #31	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.5 #105	6.1 #106	10.6 #111	8.1 #28	4.8 #110	12.9 #69
BGSU allowed	5.3 #69	7.8 #84	13.0 #73	8.0 #119	4.4 #22	12.4 #79

BGSU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	4.1 #115	5.0 #121	9.1 #121	3.8 #121	7.3 #64	11.0 #94
BUFF allowed	2.1 #12	5.6 #33	7.8 #14	6.0 #83	7.1 #83	13.1 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.