Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Wed, Oct 29, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

4-3 · Power #101

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-6 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

JXST -4.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 30–25 MTSU

✓ JXST (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -5.5

CloseJXST -4.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -5.5

1 → MTSU

CloseJXST -4.5

1 pt toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -5.5 · closed JXST -4.5 · moved 1 toward MTSUmodel JXST -7

model JXST -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 51% (130 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (257 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -5.5

CloseJXST -4.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 4.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 7.4 against an average line of 4.9; 58.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Very close	RICE @ UAB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	14–40	L	O52.25
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Very close	TEM @ TLSA 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-4.5	38–37	L	O52.5
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST LLLLW	3-4	43%	1-3	0-2
MTSU WLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	3-3

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OUOOO	5-2	71%	4-3
MTSU UOUUO	3-4	43%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MTSU	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

JXST 4–0 MTSU JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 23 2024	Middle Tennessee 20 @ Jacksonville State 42	JXST -20.5	JXST W
Oct 4 2023	Jacksonville State 45 @ Middle Tennessee 30	MTSU -2.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−9.3▼ 4.2#103

MTSU−18.0 →−17.8▲ 0.2#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JXST

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#58

Offense

◀ JXST better

#112

#95

Defense

Even

#100

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

0.0 #74

73 plays #23

Pace

◀ JXST faster

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #54	29.7 #104	JXST
Yards / play	5.72 #70	5.73 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	+0.18 #111	JXST
Success rate	44% #58	44% #96	JXST

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #125	26.6 #87	JXST
Yards / play	5.02 #116	5.83 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #120	+0.14 #95	JXST
Success rate	42% #87	44% #99	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.4 #65	8.7 #70	15.1 #65	8.0 #30	7.6 #58	15.6 #39
MTSU allowed	9.0 #128	9.6 #109	18.6 #125	3.9 #38	7.3 #87	11.1 #57

MTSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.3 #84	5.3 #117	10.6 #112	3.1 #127	4.9 #107	8.0 #125
JXST allowed	5.9 #81	6.3 #50	12.1 #66	5.3 #68	9.1 #126	14.4 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.