Jacksonville State @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

5-3 · Power #101

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

2-6 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

JXST -1.5

✓ JXST W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 26–24 UTEP

✓ JXST (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -2.5

CloseJXST -1.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -2.5

1 → UTEP

CloseJXST -1.5

1 pt toward UTEP

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -2.5 · closed JXST -1.5 · moved 1 toward UTEPmodel JXST -1.5 matches the line

model JXST -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (149 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (271 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -2.5

CloseJXST -1.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 1.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 30–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 46.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 2.4; 43 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	LT @ FIU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	10–17	L	U49
Very close	LIB @ UTEP 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	19–8	W	U46.5
Very close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Very close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–25	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST LLLWL	3-5	38%	1-4	0-3
UTEP LLLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	1-4

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UOOOU	5-3	63%	5-3
UTEP OUUOU	3-5	38%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 454 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
UTEP	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JXST 1–0 UTEP JXST leads · 1 game since 2023 · JXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 26 2023	UTEP 14 @ Jacksonville State 17	UTEP -1.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−9.8▼ 4.7#106

UTEP−15.9 →−15.5▲ 0.4#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

JXST

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#61

Offense

◀ JXST better

#126

#85

Defense

UTEP better ▶

#34

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−1.0 #128

73 plays #18

Pace

◀ JXST faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	JXST off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #58	25.3 #77	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #74	4.90 #26	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	−0.04 #18	UTEP
Success rate	44% #55	37% #16	UTEP

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	UTEP off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #114	25.9 #83	JXST
Yards / play	5.00 #117	5.70 #83	JXST
PPA / play	−0.16 #137	+0.13 #89	JXST
Success rate	32% #136	43% #85	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	5.6 #79	8.5 #72	14.1 #76	7.0 #43	8.8 #29	15.8 #32
UTEP allowed	8.3 #121	5.6 #31	13.9 #80	5.9 #79	5.5 #48	11.4 #60

UTEP scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.5 #122	5.5 #116	9.0 #121	4.3 #105	7.6 #52	11.9 #84
JXST allowed	5.9 #83	5.5 #29	11.4 #49	5.6 #72	8.9 #123	14.5 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.