UTEP @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Kennesaw State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

2-5 · Power #131

final

Final

Kennesaw State

5-2 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

KENN -12.5

✓ KENN W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 18–30 KENN

✓ KENN (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -8.5

CloseKENN -12.5

Total48.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENN -8.5

4 → KENN

CloseKENN -12.5

4 pts toward Kennesaw State

Total

Open48.5

▲ 5

Close53.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENN -8.5 · closed KENN -12.5 · moved 4 toward KENNmodel KENN -10.5

model KENN -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 53% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (138 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -8.5

CloseKENN -12.5

Total48.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENN as a 12.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KENN won 33–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.8 against an average line of 11.8; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs EMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	35–10	W	U51.5
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13	24–14	L	U53
Close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Close	UNM vs NEV 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	24–22	L	U49.5
Close	BGSU vs ODU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-11	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5
Loose	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & spread	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Loose	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & season form	-13	44–7	W	P51
Loose	BUFF vs EMU 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-9.5	31–30	L	O53.5
Loose	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	1-3
KENN LWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; KENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UOUUO	3-4	43%	2-5
KENN UUUUO	2-5	29%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
KENN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTEP 1–0 KENN UTEP leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTEP has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Kennesaw State 35 @ UTEP 43	UTEP -4.5	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−15.4▲ 0.5#123

KENN−24.1 →−9.4▲ 14.7#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UTEP

Longer bar = better

KENN

#123

Offense

KENN better ▶

#66

#36

Defense

◀ UTEP better

#63

−1.1 #133

Turnovers

KENN better ▶

−0.3 #99

64 plays #104

Pace

Even

64 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: KENN defense

	UTEP off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #113	21.3 #42	KENN
Yards / play	5.15 #106	5.66 #83	KENN
PPA / play	−0.16 #137	+0.07 #55	KENN
Success rate	33% #136	41% #72	KENN

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	KENN off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #86	24.1 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.99 #52	4.99 #30	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	−0.02 #19	UTEP
Success rate	43% #71	38% #25	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.0 #116	4.9 #123	8.9 #123	3.4 #121	8.7 #37	12.1 #81
KENN allowed	5.4 #72	4.0 #10	9.4 #30	4.9 #59	7.0 #80	11.9 #73

KENN scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	8.9 #18	5.3 #116	14.1 #77	6.3 #64	4.9 #106	11.1 #92
UTEP allowed	7.4 #109	6.1 #45	13.6 #79	5.7 #82	4.9 #35	10.6 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.