Delaware @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F5 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Delaware

4-3 · Power #117

final

Final

Liberty

3-4 · Power #104

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -3.5

✓ LIB W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

DEL 24–28 LIB

✓ LIB (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -3.5

CloseLIB -3.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -3.5

no move

CloseLIB -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -3.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -5.5

model LIB -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (276 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -3.5

CloseLIB -3.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 3.5-point home favorite against DEL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 59–30; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.8 against an average line of 3.3; 48 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NAVY vs USF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	30–44	L	O54.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	14–21	L	U53.5
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEL WWLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-1
LIB LLWWL	2-5	29%	0-3	1-4

Venue/role: DEL away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEL OUUOO	3-4	43%	4-3
LIB UUUUO	2-5	29%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 564 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DELlast 8	4-4 50%	2-6 25%	4-4 50%
LIB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEL−22.6 →−13.3▲ 9.3#119

LIB−5.7 →−10.8▼ 5.1#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DEL

Longer bar = better

LIB

#55

Offense

◀ DEL better

#111

#101

Defense

LIB better ▶

#58

−0.4 #107

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

−0.1 #85

73 plays #15

Pace

◀ DEL faster

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEL has the ball

Even matchup

	DEL off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #64	21.6 #46	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #68	5.45 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.07 #56	Even
Success rate	46% #35	41% #62	DEL

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #122	28.3 #96	DEL
Yards / play	5.18 #105	5.71 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #122	+0.22 #125	Even
Success rate	41% #94	44% #97	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DEL scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	4.4 #108	12.7 #10	17.1 #44	4.9 #93	6.3 #77	11.1 #90
LIB allowed	1.9 #7	7.3 #75	9.1 #24	4.4 #48	8.0 #106	12.4 #85

LIB scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	2.9 #129	5.7 #113	8.6 #124	3.3 #127	7.3 #60	10.6 #101
DEL allowed	6.4 #94	7.3 #75	13.7 #80	8.9 #127	5.3 #45	14.1 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.